The single biggest threat to Charlie Crist's political future probably isn't his U.S. Senate primary rival, Marco Rubio.

It's former Gov. Jeb Bush, who could give Rubio an enormous boost if he chose to.

A new Miami Herald/St. Petersburg Times/Bay News 9 poll underscores how much Bush's shadow still looms over Florida almost three years after him leaving office: Forty-six percent said they would rather have Bush leading Florida today, while 41 percent said Crist.

More striking, 71 percent of Republicans would pick Bush as governor today, while only 22 percent of Republicans said they would pick Crist over Bush. ``Is there a path to victory for Marco Rubio? Yes, but it involves the support of Jeb Bush,'' pollster Tom Eldon said. ``Crist may have appointed the last senator, but Bush has it in his hands to appoint the next one.''

WORST-KEPT SECRET

Despite their occasional public professions of mutual respect, the Crist-Bush rivalry is among the worst-kept secrets in Florida.

The former governor is officially neutral but often praises Rubio, and recently chastised national Republican leaders for trying to discourage a Republican Senate primary.

``This is absolutely a proxy war between two Republican clans,'' MSNBC host Joe Scarborough, a former Republican congressman from Pensacola, told The St. Petersburg Times. ``And it's not just about Florida, but about what Florida politician gets to the front of the line to run for president. It's a zero-sum game. Any advantage Charlie Crist gets hurts Jeb Bush, and any advantage Jeb Bush gets hurts Charlie Crist.''

The telephone survey of 600 registered voters was conducted Oct. 25-28 by Schroth, Eldon and Associates, whose clients primarily are Democrats, and the Polling Co., which mainly works with Republicans. The margin of error was plus or minus 4 percentage points overall, and slightly more than 6 percentage points for questions asked solely to Democrats or Republicans.

ONLY WITH DEMOCRATS

Crist's emphasis on bipartisanship appears to be paying off only with Democrats, who said they would pick Crist over Bush as governor, 58 percent to 24 percent. The poll found that 44 percent of independents would pick Bush as governor today and 38 percent said Crist.

Hispanic voters picked Bush over Crist, 63 percent to 24 percent, while African-Americans picked Crist over Bush, 70 percent to 16 percent. Even in Crist's home base of Tampa Bay, 47 percent said they would prefer Bush as governor today, compared to 37 percent for Crist, who beat Bush by 10 percentage points in South Florida.

Herald/Times writer Shannon Colavecchio contributed to this report. Adam C. Smith can be reached at asmith@sptimes.com.

Join the discussion

The Miami Herald is pleased to provide this opportunity to share information, experiences and observations about what's in the news. Some of the comments may be reprinted elsewhere in the site or in the newspaper. We encourage lively, open debate on the issues of the day, and ask that you refrain from profanity, hate speech, personal comments and remarks that are off point. In order to post comments, you must be a registered user of MiamiHerald.com. Your username will show along with the comments you post. Thank you for taking the time to offer your thoughts.

     Showing: Oldest first Newest first Most-recommended first Least-recommended first

@Nyx.AuthorDisplayName@ wrote on @Nyx.PostedAtTime@:

@Nyx.repliedToText@

@Nyx.replyAnswerText@

Reply to this Comment @Nyx.Recommender@ @Nyx.AbuseReporter@