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CAMPAIGN 2008 | PUBLIC OPINION

Nov. 4 could bring seismic shift to political landscape

With a little more than three weeks until Nov. 4, opinion polls indicate that Barack Obama and the Democrats could be on the winning end of a transforming election.

sthomma@mcclatchydc.com

Barring a dramatic change in the political landscape over the next three weeks, Democrats appear headed toward a decisive victory on Election Day that would give them broad power over the federal government.

Polls, both nationally and in battleground states, increasingly point to a win that would send Barack Obama to the White House and give him larger Democratic majorities in both the House of Representatives and the Senate -- and perhaps a filibuster-proof margin there.

That could mark a historic realignment of the country's politics on a par with 1932 or 1980, when the out party was given power it held for a generation, and used it to transform government's role in American society.

Of course, a lot can change in the final three weeks of the campaign -- one that has already seen volatile shifts in the fortunes of Obama and Republican rival John McCain. And some observers would cite polls that erroneously pointed to a New Hampshire primary win for Obama over Hillary Clinton, or the Election Day exit polls in 2004 that incorrectly suggested a John Kerry victory over President Bush.

Still, as things stand now, Obama, a 47-year-old first-term senator from Illinois, is well positioned to win the Electoral College. He's comfortably holding most of the ''blue'' states that went for Democrats Al Gore and Kerry in past elections, polls show, and he's gaining momentum to take away several ''red'' states that have voted Republican in recent elections, including Florida, Ohio, Colorado and Virginia.

The Democrats are also widely expected to take big gains in House and Senate races. Like Obama, they're reaching deep into once solid Republican territory. Even such stalwarts as North Carolina Sen. Elizabeth Dole and Kentucky Sen. Mitch McConnell, the Senate Republican leader, could be in jeopardy.

Building on the Democrats' sweeping wins two years ago when they seized control of both chambers of Congress, big gains this year would be reminiscent of the Republican gains in 1978 and 1980 that delivered ``the Reagan Revolution.''

Former Reagan political advisor Ed Rollins likened today's landscape to 1980's, when voters were angry at President Jimmy Carter and the Democrats, and turned to Ronald Reagan in droves once they felt comfortable with the idea of him as president.

''Barack has met the threshold,'' Rollins said. ``Once Reagan met the threshold, people wanted to get rid of Carter and they did in a landslide. This is going to turn into a landslide.''

THE WRONG TRACK

Democrats already had a political advantage heading into the fall campaign, with just 9 percent of Americans thinking the country is on the right track, the lowest ever recorded. President Bush's approval rating last week was only a point higher than Richard Nixon's on the day he was forced to resign from office, reflecting voter anger at Republicans as the party controlling the White House.

Add the collapse of stock prices and anxiety about the economy, and polls show public opinion surging in favor of Democrats.

''The fundamentals have come together almost perfectly and at just the right moment for the Democrats,'' said Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia. ``It could hardly look better for the Democrats.''

''This election right now is exclusively about the economy,'' said independent analyst Charlie Cook. ``Despite the fact that the House and Senate are in Democratic hands, Republicans seem to have total ownership of the problem. Fair or not, it's true.''

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