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POLITICS | ANALYSIS

Independents swinging to GOP

sthomma@mcclatchydc.com

President Barack Obama and the Democrats have a problem heading into next year's elections for control of Congress -- they're losing independents to the Republicans and parts of their own Democratic base to apathy.

Strong majorities of independents turned away from Democrats and voted Republican in Virginia and New Jersey on Tuesday, signaling they could be up for grabs heading into the 2010 elections. They went for the Republican gubernatorial nominee in Virginia by 66 percent to 33 percent, and in New Jersey by 60 percent to 40 percent, according to exit polls.

The swing isn't limited to those two states. A new McClatchy-Ipsos poll found independents have pulled away from Obama steadily for months and have turned sharply against his highest domestic priority, the plan to overhaul the nation's health care system.

Democrats also face challenges energizing their base in the 2010 elections when 36 senators and the entire House of Representatives will be up for election. In Virginia on Tuesday, for example, voters under age 30 made up just 10 percent of the vote, less than half the 22 percent they comprised last year when Obama won the Old Dominion, the first time it voted for a Democrat for president since 1964.

The new poll this week found independents nationally turning ever more skeptical toward Obama, helping drive his job approval rating to 53 percent, the lowest of his presidency.

Only 45 percent of independents now approve of how Obama's doing his job, down 12 points from August and 25 points from the start of his term. Disapproval among independents more than doubled in his first 10 months, to 41 percent from 19 percent.

ELECTION RESULTS

In more results from Tuesday's elections:

In Maine, in an election that had been billed for weeks as too close to call, the state's often unpredictable voters repealed a state law that would have allowed same-sex couples to wed. Gay marriage has now lost in all 31 states in which it has been put to a popular vote.

Democrats gained a House seat in upstate New York: Lawyer and retired Air Force Capt. Bill Owens won the special election in which the Republican candidate withdrew under pressure from the party's right wing and GOP heavyweights endorsed the Conservative Party nominee.

An Atlanta councilwoman could become the city's first white mayor in a generation, facing off against a black state senator in a runoff next month. Mary Norwood received 45 percent of the vote, compared to Sen. Kasim Reed at 38 percent.

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