SAN JOSE, Calif. -- Their job prospects battered by a deep recession, fewer immigrants are being caught trying to cross illegally into the United States than at any time since the 1970s, say two reports based on new federal data. But it remains unclear whether many illegal immigrants already here are heading back home.

Apprehensions of illegal immigrants at the U.S.-Mexico border are down 34 percent over the past two years, according to new U.S. Department of Homeland Security data -- on pace to be even lower in fiscal 2009.

With record removals of unauthorized migrants in the U.S. and increased spending on border security, the economic and enforcement barriers to crossing into California and other Southwestern states have rarely been higher, federal officials and immigration experts say.

``It's far riskier to cross the border, it costs more, and the rewards are simply not there -- the jobs that have driven people here for 40 years,'' said Al Camarillo, a Stanford historian who follows Latin American immigration.

A new Pew Research Center report estimates that for the 12 months ending in February 2009, the net migration between Mexico and the U.S. -- the number of people coming to the U.S. minus those returning to Mexico -- was about 203,000, less than half of the 547,000 two years earlier.

``There is no real way to separate what part is enforcement and what part is economic,'' said Jeffrey Passel, co-author of the Pew report. ``They may work together.''

And now, those who cross the border increasingly make states other than California their destination.

Even after the economy picks up, Camarillo said, ``I don't think you're going to see a place like California be the magnet again, as it was from the 1970s to the late '90s.''

While some have theorized that the recession has prompted more Mexicans to go home, Pew found no such evidence from an analysis of data from the Mexican government and the U.S. Census.

Others disagree. Steven Camarota of the Center for Immigration Studies, a group that favors increased immigration curbs, says his census data analysis suggests more young, undocumented Mexicans are returning home this year because of the recession.

``I think it's half right,'' Camarota said of the Pew report. ``The legal population is not going home, but it appears the illegal population is going home in larger numbers. Fewer people are coming.''

Camarota says the population of illegal immigrants in the U.S. may have dropped below 11 million, from a high of about 12 million in 2006.

Through June 30 of this fiscal year, authorities apprehended about 429,000 people attempting to cross the border -- dramatically off the 1.7 million people apprehended in 2000, the peak year. Nine months into the 2009 fiscal year, the pace is comparable to the 597,000 people apprehended in 1975.

``Does the economy have anything to do with it? Of course it does,'' said Lloyd Easterling, the Customs and Border Protection spokesman. ``But we would be foolish to say that enforcement, especially since we've ramped up in several areas in the last few years, wasn't a part of it. It's a big part of it.''

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