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MIAMI COMMISSION ELECTIONS

Two commission races likely to go to runoffs

Miami will have some new commissioners after this election season is over. At least two races are likely to be decided in runoffs.

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mrvasquez@MiamiHerald.com

Miami City Hall is poised for some big changes to its City Commission, but those changes might not be finalized by the time election results are counted on Tuesday.

Two of the three commission seats being contested may have to be decided in a runoff. The District 3 and District 4 seats -- both of which were vacated by the incumbents -- have each attracted large pools of candidates.

Should no candidate in those races garner more than 50 percent of the vote, the top two finishers will be headed for a runoff election Nov. 17.

In District 5, two challengers have stepped up to face incumbent Michelle Spence-Jones. But, with the backing of Miami's political establishment, she is expected to prevail without a runoff. Candidates David Chiverton and Jeff Torain are opposing Spence-Jones, who did not return calls for comment.

Torain insisted that those predicting an easy Spence-Jones victory will be surprised come election day.

``There are a group of folks out here, who we believe will be the majority, who want to see some change,'' he said.

Change in some form or another will be coming to the Miami City Commission. Open seats in Districts 3 and 4 guarantee that at least two new faces will join the five-member body. Should Spence-Jones unexpectedly lose, more than half the commission would be new.

``A whole new attitude will come out, people will form alliances and people will see things in different ways,'' said Commissioner Marc Sarnoff, who is not up for reelection this year. ``How that will play out, it depends on who's on the dais, to be honest.''

OPEN SEATS

Miami's two open seats were created when Commissioners Tomás Regalado and Joe Sanchez both entered the race to be Miami's next mayor. Current Mayor Manny Diaz is stepping down due to term limits. Polling has showed Regalado with a sizable lead, though a large number of undecided voters remain.

In District 3, polling conducted for The Miami Herald by Florida International University's Metropolitan Center shows Frank Carollo far ahead, although the race still seems likely to go to a runoff.

Carollo, brother of former Mayor Joe Carollo, has support from about 41 percent of the voters polled and boasts a commanding lead over six opponents -- all of whom polled in the single digits.

His dominance has persisted even as he rarely made appearances at candidate debates and forums attended by his rivals.

``The question in District 3 is, can Frank Carollo avoid a runoff?'' said Dario Moreno, head of FIU's Metropolitan Center. ``Even though the numbers look very strong, he seems to be stuck on that 41 percent base.''

Battling Carollo are Guillermo ``Willie'' Chacon, Mavel Lopez, Pedro Diaz, Maria ``Beba'' Sardiña Mann, former state Rep. Luis Morse and Antonio ``Mico'' Colmenares.

DISTRICT 4

In District 4, the race has been dominated by two candidates: Manolo Reyes and Francis Suarez. Reyes is a former city budget analyst who has run for City Commission several times before, while Suarez, an attorney, is perhaps best known as the son of former Miami Mayor Xavier Suarez.

Polling has shown Reyes and Suarez in a statistical dead heat, with the other two candidates, Oscar Rodriguez-Fonts and Denis Rod, trailing far behind. A runoff between Reyes and Suarez appears likely.

``I'm confident,'' Reyes said. ``If there is a runoff, we're ready for it.''

Overall, Miami's commission races have featured a few personal digs between candidates, but nothing approaching the vicious attacks of some previous city elections.

Reyes and Suarez, for example, have each released ads that took subtle jabs at their opponent. In one campaign mailer, Reyes compiled testimonials from supporters, including an endorsement from ``the Suarez family.'' Upon closer inspection, it's another Suarez family, not that of his opponent.

Suarez, meanwhile, has aired radio ads proclaiming the race as a people-versus-the kings contest. Suarez says the ``kings'' he refers to are overpaid city of Miami employees, but Reyes' last name means ``kings'' in Spanish.

In both the Nov. 3 election as well a potential runoff, candidates are facing the challenge of motivating voters who appear somewhat apathetic this election season. The first few days of early voting -- which continues Saturday and Sunday -- were relatively quiet.

``The sentiment is that turnout is low,'' said candidate Suarez. ``What's going to make the difference is who works the hardest and whose message penetrates those hard-core voters who go out to vote.''

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