TALLAHASSEE -- If the state's new voter-registration numbers were a public poll, here's what they'd say about the political climate in Florida:

• Democrats are surging and boasting of an ''enthusiasm gap.'' Since the Jan. 29 primary, the party increased its ranks by 252,600 voters, ticking up 6 percent. Overall voter registration across all parties grew 4 percent to 10.6 million.

• The Republican Party is not doing as well. Its membership increased by just 2.5 percent -- about 98,000. The nearly 4.4 million Democrats outnumber Republicans by 465,000.

• Voters are less inclined to register with no-party affiliation, once the fastest-growing segment of the electorate. NPA registration increased 2.5 percent since January.

• Hispanics, who make up a crucial voting group, are flocking more to the Democratic Party, which increased its Hispanic rolls by 18 percent. African-American voters increased 8 percent statewide. The gains among black voters in Broward and Miami-Dade counties: 14 and 12 percent, respectively.

• Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama, as well as the tough economy, seems to be the difference maker.

''I don't know what else to attribute it to,'' said Republican Gov. Charlie Crist, noting the high numbers of minorities in Florida, when asked if the voter rolls showed an Obama bounce.

''Across the country, clearly, it's been a difficult headwind for the Republicans,'' said Crist, a possible running mate and close ally of Obama opponent John McCain. ``My own election, I was only one of only two that got elected in '06 as a Republican.''

THE CRIST EFFECT

And that's something that doesn't show up in registration numbers -- the Crist effect. Whether he's chosen as a running mate or not, the popular governor has pledged to campaign hard for McCain, who hasn't spent money advertising on Florida television during the general election while Obama has coughed up a bundle.

Yet public-opinion polls show that McCain is still edging Obama in Florida, though the race is tightening.

Democrats dismissed the accuracy of the polls so far from the Nov. 4 Election Day, and celebrated the new registration numbers as a sign of things to come. They point out their candidate drew more than 1,500 people to an office opening in Brevard County -- Republican country -- while McCain drew about that many supporters to a free country music show in Republican country in Panama City last month.

''It points to one fundamental point that's hard to dispute: There's an enthusiasm gap,'' said Obama's Florida campaign chief, Steve Schale. ``In 2004, their side was more excited than our side. Now, our side is more excited than their side.''

Another factor: Outside groups like ACORN, the Association of Community Organizations for Reform Now, are conducting huge voter drives targeting minorities and the poor at the same time the Obama campaign registers more voters.

But all the talk of new voters, office openings, enthusiasm and outside groups sounds an awful lot like the Democrats' talk in 2004, when the party had a 329,000 voter edge and registered about 60,000 more people that year than Republicans.

REPUBLICAN DRIVE

Yet the machine-like Republican Party of Florida hit the telephones and the voter lists and started a get-out-the-vote effort that resulted in 138 more Republicans showing up on Election Day than Democrats. Democrats had a 66 percent turnout rate compared to the GOP's 75.7 percent turnout in an election with an overall 74 percent turnout.

''At the end of the day, would I rather have our operation or theirs? I would take ours any day,'' said former state GOP chief David ''DJ'' Johnson. Johnson also said ACORN had a ''sketchy'' history of voter-registration drives, something that Florida ACORN's head organizer, Brian Kettenring, said was an inaccurate partisan attack.

SHEER NUMBER

Regardless of how the voters got on the rolls, Johnson said the sheer number of Democrats is a concern this year -- as is the fact that more Hispanics are now registered Democrats. About 455,000 Hispanics are now in the Democratic Party, which only this year surpassed Republicans, who count 425,000 in their ranks.

Compared to the last presidential election, the numbers are even more dramatic for African-Americans. More than 207,000 have joined the Democratic Party since 2004, accounting for 44 percent of the new-voter growth.

Ever the optimist, Crist found something positive.

''The good news is people are registering to vote,'' Crist said, before acknowledging: ``Being a Republican, I wish more of them were Republican.''

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