The hottest thing in Israel today -- except for the weather -- is whether President Obama and his team will seriously pressure Israel on the settlement issue. The second hottest thing is whether such pressure is good or bad for Israel.

It was during the term of President Lyndon B. Johnson, in the wake of the Six-Day War, that the policy of all U.S. administrations toward a settlement of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict was phrased: ``Back to the pre-1967 borders, with minor modifications.''

This basic goal remained unchanged for four decades; what did change, however, was U.S. resolve to push for it. In 1975 President Ford threatened to ``reassess'' U.S.-Israeli relations, but this was from his frustration over the failure of Henry Kissinger's shuttle diplomacy in the Middle East, more than because of the Israeli settlements.

With most U.S. administrations paying the usual lip service to the settlements issue but in fact turning a blind eye to it, President George H.W. Bush was an exception. In 1992, he denied Israel vital loan guarantees because Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir had refused to freeze the settlements. Yet this moment of friction was short-lived: Both leaders lost their respective elections, and rhetoric aside, the settlements issue returned to the back burner.

In the meantime, another thing has changed: reality on the ground. If in the early days after the Six-Day War, the West Bank was hardly populated by Jewish settlers, today some 250,000 live there, in cities and solid, established, communities. Returning to the ``pre-1967 borders, with minor modifications,'' was maybe an option three decades ago. Today, it is an awesome task. I can hardly see an Israeli government capable of uprooting so many people and surviving politically.

Furthermore, there is no sign that such move would satisfy the Palestinians: In 2000, at Camp David, Prime Minister Ehud Barak, with the blessing of President Bill Clinton, basically offered Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat what America had been preaching from the start: almost all of the West Bank. But Arafat couldn't take yes for an answer and rejected a deal that no Israeli government in the foreseeable future would possibly offer again.

In light of all this, the pressure of Obama and his team on Israel to freeze the settlements is received by Israelis with suspicion.

• First of all, many of the settlers are religious people, who have families with many children. There is no conspiracy, then, to expand the settlements; it's a natural growth.

• Second, with all due respect to the Obama magic, people here are generally not too impressed with the way America is handling itself in the Middle East. Be it naiveté, ignorance or the belief that everybody, everywhere, must be thinking American, the result is that Israelis, like others in this region, are watching America roaming around here like a bull in a China shop, producing very little benefit. One doesn't even need to point to Iraq: It was due to American pressure to ``democratize'' the Palestinians, that Hamas won power in Gaza.

There are, however, Israelis who think that President Obama is right, that without a freeze on the settlements, no peace process will ever take off. Furthermore, if we reach the point of no return, and the settlement project is irreversible, because of its sheer size, then the whole area between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea will become one state, in which the Arabs, with their greater birth rate, will eventually become the majority.

In that case, if there is one-man-one-vote, Israel will lose its Jewish character; if there isn't, then Israel will become an apartheid state. For years I have been preaching that Israel should pull out of the West Bank, precisely because of this grim scenario.

Israel should do so regardless of what the Palestinians say or do, because it serves her own interests.

Does this mean that I welcome pressure from a U.S. administration, sort of ``helping Israel to help itself'' (or, in a cruder way, ``saving Israel from itself'')? Not necessarily. I wish Israelis were carving the future for their children with their own hands. However, a friendly American reminder will not hurt.

Uri Dromi is a columnist based in Jerusalem.

Join the discussion

The Miami Herald is pleased to provide this opportunity to share information, experiences and observations about what's in the news. Some of the comments may be reprinted elsewhere in the site or in the newspaper. We encourage lively, open debate on the issues of the day, and ask that you refrain from profanity, hate speech, personal comments and remarks that are off point. In order to post comments, you must be a registered user of MiamiHerald.com. Your username will show along with the comments you post. Thank you for taking the time to offer your thoughts.

     Showing: Oldest first Newest first Most-recommended first Least-recommended first

@Nyx.AuthorDisplayName@ wrote on @Nyx.PostedAtTime@:

@Nyx.repliedToText@

@Nyx.replyAnswerText@

Reply to this Comment @Nyx.Recommender@ @Nyx.AbuseReporter@