FRED GRIMM

fgrimm@MiamiHerald.com

T he cost of Ike -- and storms of Ike's ilk -- are calculated by the damage and ruination left after hurricanes crash ashore.

Ripped away roofs. Blasted out windows. Boats tossed ashore. Seaside structures battered in the abominable surge. Houses and cars engulfed by inland floods. The National Science Board figures economic losses from a storm by essentially doubling the dollar total of all the insurance claims.

One might think that the board's estimate that hurricanes wreaked $36 billion in property losses in the United States from 2001 through 2005 -- not to mention the 2,200 people killed -- would be enough to propel a hurricane research funding bill through Congress.

In June, a key congressional committee again heard climate scientists juxtapose the need for serious research against the devastation wreaked by hurricanes. But a bill adding $500 million to the piddling amount we now spend on research has bogged down for the second year in a row.

PRICE OF UNCERTAINTY

But the inexactness of hurricane forecasting rings up considerable costs beyond the swath of destruction where the storms actually come ashore. The House Committee on Science and Technology ought to reconvene this morning in the parking lot of a Home Depot somewhere in the so-called ``cone of uncertainty.''

Committee members would witness a buying frenzy. Plywood. Gas cans. Generators. They could visit mobbed supermarkets and see the run on canned tuna, bottled water and peanut butter.

Tomorrow, they'll see a bustling region gone quiet. Workers stay home. Schools close. Hotels are emptied. Cruise ships are diverted. The Florida Keys hemorrhage tourists and residents alike as a giant throng of refugees burn up gasoline trying to escape the forecasters' warning cone.

Inevitably, much of this frenzied storm preparation will be for a storm that veers elsewhere. Not exactly a catastrophe, of course. Not like having a city ripped apart. But productivity stops. Household budgets get skewed by storm supplies. Offices, stores, restaurants close. Commerce is stifled.

LESS FUNDING, MORE DOUBT

When the cone of uncertainty envelops a region with six million residents, even if the hurricane eventually meanders south and clobbers Cuba, costs are enormous.

Yet, hurricane intensity research gets only half as much funding as early drought warning; only a fourth of the money budgeted for earthquake research. Neither of those other natural disasters rings up massive economic losses for misses.

Last week, New Orleans emptied in advance of an anticipated threat described by the mayor as ''the mother of all storms.'' Only a downsized Gustav rolled ashore 75 miles southwest of the city. The next day, thousands of the storm refugees trying to head home were stopped by police and kept in their parked cars waiting and seething for hours before disaster officials finally relented.

Next time the warning cone envelops New Orleans, the terrible memories of Hurricane Katrina in 2005 will be mitigated by anger and inconvenience residents suffered when they evacuated for a dud like Gustav. Next time, fewer will leave.

If serious, well-financed storm research can squeeze uncertainty from that infamous cone, it'll save money. And when a big one hits, it will save lives.

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