Colombian President Alvaro Uribe, who enjoys sky-high popularity rates at home thanks to his successful crackdown on narco-terrorist groups, is a step closer to changing the constitution and running for a third consecutive term. The big question is whether this will turn Colombia into a banana republic.

Last week, the Colombian Congress passed a law to convene a referendum asking Colombians whether they approve of allowing Uribe to run for a third consecutive term. The Congress had already changed the constitution four years ago, to allow Uribe to run for reelection, but only for one term.

Uribe supporters say Colombia desperately needs a third term by Uribe, so that he can finish the job of dismantling the guerrilla armies that have held Colombia at bay for the past five decades.

Since Uribe took office in 2002, the number of FARC guerrillas has dropped from 23,000 to about 8,500, and kidnappings for ransom have declined from 2,882 to 437 people a year. For the first time in recent history, Colombians can safely travel through most of the country, they say.

The economy is growing, poverty has dropped by 11 percent over the past six years, and foreign investment reached an all-time high of $10.5 billion last year. Not surprisingly, Uribe's popularity is near 70 percent.

In addition, the process to change the constitution was totally legal, Uribe supporters say.

``I think the president should continue in power because his work has been successful, and all the figures prove it,'' Colombian presidential spokesman César Mauricio Velásquez told me in a telephone interview. ``Poverty is down, education and health have improved, and he has to continue the recovery of our security situation. He must finish the job he has initiated.''

REASONS TO OPPOSE

Critics of Uribe's reelection, including many who think he has done a great job, counter that Uribe should not run again precisely to ensure that his accomplishments are continued by others. All presidential candidates leading in the polls would most likely continue Uribe's policies. Chances of a leftist radical winning the next elections are minuscule.

Furthermore, Uribe supporters' argument that the reelection process is legal doesn't fly because the government will most likely manipulate the referendum process, critics say.

Much like in neighboring Venezuela, where narcissist-Leninist President Hugo Chávez routinely wins referendums by throwing carrots such as asking voters whether they support new government subsidies, Uribe is likely to include questions such as whether there should be harsher penalties for child molesters, they say.

Pragmatists argue that, whether justified or not, a third term by Uribe will hurt Colombia's image abroad, and it's already in shaky standing with the U.S. Congress, where many legislators are critical of Colombia over human-rights issues.

Asked how Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., would feel about a third Uribe term, spokesman Frederick Jones told me, ``Sen. Kerry believes that it is for the Colombian people to decide whether to amend the Colombian constitution again. . . . but he strongly believes that the alternation of power is essential to a functioning and healthy democracy.''

Another well-placed congressional source told me that a third Uribe term ``is going to make our ability to make progress on the U.S.-Colombia free-trade agreement -- and broader funding on [the U.S. anti-narcotics aid] Plan Colombia -- difficult. Many Democrats see Uribe as a human-rights violator who is turning into something like a little king.''

SOME BLUNT ADVICE

My opinion: A third consecutive term would be bad for Uribe, bad for Colombia, and bad for Latin America.

Bad for Uribe, because instead of leaving office as a hero, he will end up badly, much like former Argentine President Carlos S. Menem, Peru's former President Alberto Fujimori and others who bent the laws to run for third terms.

Bad for Colombia, because it would turn it into a Mickey Mouse democracy, where an almighty maximum leader would generate a popular reaction that sooner or later would move the political pendulum in the opposite direction.

And it would be bad for Latin America, because it would be a big blow for pro-democracy forces. It would allow Chávez and his fellow autocrats to say, ``Why do you attack us if our adversaries do the same thing?''

So, please, President Uribe, turn yourself into a champion of democracy, and drop this foolish idea. It's bound to destroy you -- and your country.

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