If the U.S. economy is slowing (and it has), it may take some time to show up in the monthly employment data. It is an economic reality that job gains lag behind an economic pickup. As the economy has slowed, employment also can be stubborn to stumble.
After a recession, companies understandably are reluctant to add to their payrolls quickly. They are busy squeezing productivity out of their current staff, hoping to recover any lost profits. It’s only when they are confident their business is sturdy and sustainable that they take the risk to add costs and hire new workers.
In the week ahead, investors will learn if hiring in January mirrored the general economic slowdown as 2016 began. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta runs a real-time running calculation of the American economy. Instead of an economic forecast, the bank calls it a “nowcast.” From late-December through last week, the “now” wasn’t good. The model pegged the nation’s GDP growth below 1 percent.
This is the economic chill employers have encountered this month after adding an average of 280,000 new jobs in each of the last three months of last year. The year 2015 ended with the best two year stretch of job gains in almost two decades.
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But the markets look ahead. Investors are more interested in the uncertainty of the future rather than the clarity of the present.
Financial journalist Tom Hudson hosts “The Sunshine Economy”on WLRN-FM in Miami. Follow him on Twitter @HudsonsView.