The Economic Time Machine

July 30, 2013

Home values soar in Miami, but still off 41% from peaks

A 14 percent surge in the Case-Shiller index bodes well for homeowners in South Florida. Ah, but to be in Dallas or Denver..

As South Florida accelerates its recovery from a real estate crash, some markets have officially left their housing wreckage behind.

Dallas and Denver both posted their highest-ever readings in the monthly S&P/Case-Shiller real estate index released Tuesday. The May index has both markets up about 1 percent from past peaks. Compare that to an average 24 percent drop for the 20 metropolitan areas tracked by Case-Shiller, and a 41 percent decline for South Florida.

Despite the ongoing damage, South Florida accelerated its recovery in May. Case-Shiller showed property values up 14 percent for the last 12 months, its best yearly increase since May 2006. Compared to April 2013, values are up just under 1 percent in May. A tiny gain, for sure, but also the 17th straight month of increases. That’s the best streak for South Florida in the Case-Shiller report since 82 months of straight gains ended in June 2006 as the pricing bubble in real estate was about to burst.

At its worst, South Florida real estate was down 51 percent on the Case-Shiller index. The trough came in November 2011.

The Miami Herald’s Economic Time Machine seeks to give the long view on the latest financial numbers for South Florida. Visit miamiherald.com/economic-time-machine for analysis of the numbers that drive the local economy. Our ETM index tracks more than 40 local indicators to measure where the economy has “landed” post-bust when compared to earlier economic conditions. The latest reading: July 2003.

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