China's warp-speed growth and economic promise have led many observers to tap it as the next world superpower; certainly the Beijing Olympics are designed to heighten its image. But in the future its path is likely to be less than smooth, says Laurence Brahm, American lawyer, political economist, consultant, filmmaker, newspaper columnist and entrepreneur.

Brahm, author of China's Century: The Awakening of the Next Economic Powerhouse ($29.95, Wiley), has lived in China since the 1980s; he now splits time between Beijing and Tibet. His mother, Constance Carroll Brahm, lives in Palm Beach County.

His most visible enterprise is the Red Capital Club, the cozy Beijing restaurant he opened in 2000. Named to Conde Nast Traveler's Hot List that year, the club is a throwback to the Mao era, complete with low plush chairs that Politburo members once sat on, plus a Cold War era bomb shelter. Brahm also has a five-room boutique hotel in Beijing, Red Capital Residence, the Maoist-chic Red Capital Ranch near the Great Wall at Mutianyu, and House of Shambhala, a boutique hotel in Lhasa. His Shambhala Foundation supports micro-equity projects in Tibet.

His view:

''China and America have more in common than any other countries,'' says Brahm. Average people in both countries share the same basic desires: better health care and education for their children and a better lifestyle for themselves.

But change has its price, and though you rarely read about it in the Western press, Chinese people are beginning to protest against government policies. ''The party line isn't that clear any more,'' he says.

As for the future, two scenarios seem most possible as foreign investment peaks.

The darker scenario: Splinter groups' terrorism will get out of hand, causing investor shock and economic collapse.

More likely, says Brahm: China will undergo a serious readjustment that may lead to some political reform, though not necessarily Western-style democracy. But, he says, economic focus will need to be tempered with other values. ``If you believe only in money, you have a skewed economy.''

-- JANE WOOLDRIDGE

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