TEGUCIGALPA -- If history is any indicator, Honduras' ousted president Manuel ``Mel'' Zelaya should get a change of clothes and a comfortable air mattress -- his stint at the Brazilian Embassy here could go for a long spell.

The deposed president sneaked into his country on Monday to force a resolution to the political crisis that has gripped this country since he was forced into exile 90 days ago. But experts say that since Zelaya's term was set to expire at the end of this year and elections were already scheduled for November, the cowboy hat-wearing populist has few options.

With the United States' support weaker than Zelaya would like, the international community not doing much beyond offering rhetoric on his behalf, and his enemies appearing willing to call his bluff, experts say Zelaya is a man running out of time.

``The way this is going, you'll see this go on for another year,'' said Central America expert Manuel Orozco, of the InterAmerican Dialogue in Washington. ``This is going to become a protracted crisis.''

The military here spirited Zelaya out of the country three months ago at gunpoint. Authorities later produced both a resignation letter and a criminal arrest warrant charging Zelaya with treason.

REASON FOR OUSTER

The ouster stemmed from Zelaya's insistence on holding a nonbinding referendum that would have asked voters whether they supported a constituent assembly to rewrite the constitution, which the Supreme Court had ruled illegal. Zelaya billed it as nothing more than an opinion poll, but the military, Congress, Supreme Court and business leaders viewed the referendum as a thinly veiled attempt to write a new constitution that could eventually allow him to stand for reelection.

Zelaya was forced out, and Roberto Micheletti, the head of Congress, was swept in. Micheletti has succeeded in defying virtually every country in the world, which does not recognize his government.

In a TV interview Wednesday, Micheletti said Zelaya should simply support a candidate for the elections, and let him win. He hopes Jimmy Carter will agree to monitor the elections.

Zelaya told a local radio station Thursday that he met with a member of Micheletti's team, and has discussions with business leaders later this week, the Associated Press reported. ``Obviously, the most logical solution for us is for Manuel Zelaya to return to power and then have elections on Nov. 29,'' said popular movement leader Samuel Zelaya -- no relation to the ousted president.

``The coup-plotters have made it clear this is not acceptable to them.''

OUTCOMES

Samuel Zelaya envisions three outcomes:

• The United Nations Security Council provides security for Zelaya to come back and finish his term -- a scenario Micheletti considers a deal-breaker.

• Zelaya doesn't return to power, and popular movements that support him fight for the constituent assembly to change the constitution.

• Elections are held, but the results would likely not be recognized by much of the international community. Zelaya would either go back into exile or stay at the embassy while Honduras' new leadership quells social upheaval.

Others have suggested postponing the elections, which few people here support.

``It's clear Micheletti and company's strategy is essentially to wait it out, get to elections and hope the international community will recognize the results,'' said Philip Williams, director of the Center for Latin American Studies at the University of Florida. ``If they go ahead and have the elections and Zelaya is sort of out of the picture because his term is up, then what is he fighting over? What's any new agreement going to be about?''

The last agreement, which Micheletti refused, would have allowed Zelaya to finish his term as long as he gave up on the constituent assembly and those who ousted him got amnesty.

Zelaya is not the first Latin American president to seek refuge behind diplomatic walls.

One example: Panama's Manuel Noriega fled to the Vatican Embassy on Christmas Eve 1990, a few days after U.S. troops invaded. He was blasted with rock music at all hours before he surrendered 10 days later: the Vatican envoy had decided that Noriega's matter was criminal and not diplomatic and suggested it was time for him to run along.

Experts say it will take international intervention to force a resolution to spare Zelaya from a years-long stretch sleeping on office chairs.

``The international community has to step in to force a negotiated agreement,'' Orozco said. ``We are getting to the point where everyone has exhausted their political higher ground.''

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