Has the art market bubble finally burst?

Collectors and dealers have warned for years that too much modern and contemporary art was being sold, and that the prices were too rich.

Art Basel Miami Beach, where wealthy collectors have sprinted across the convention center to be the first to buy, came to symbolize the inflated market.

But as the still-unfolding financial crisis deflates luxury spending and prices for many major works fall, the art industry is questioning whether the feeding frenzy is ending.

''Prices [in the past] have been overly inflated and speculative,'' said Rita Krauss, a New York art consultant. ``But these are not the good old times when everyone was throwing around money.''

In a worrisome sign for Art Basel Miami Beach, which begins Dec. 4, results at the major fall auctions for Impressionist, modern and contemporary art have been dismal. Many works failed to sell, and a number that did went for less than they would have a year ago.

At Christie's contemporary art sale in New York last Wednesday, nearly a third of the 75 lots offered went unsold. Among them was Francis Bacon's oil on canvas Self Portrait No 1 1964, which had been estimated to sell ''in the region of $40 million.'' Sales at the auction totaled $113.6 million, just half the low presale estimate of $227 million.

The night before, at the contemporary sale at Sotheby's New York, results were also dreary. Of the 64 pieces on offer, almost a third did not sell. Sotheby's pulled in $125 million for the night, far below the low estimate of $202 million.

''These sales reflect the larger economic downturn,'' said Marvin Ross Friedman, a Miami attorney and private art dealer. Poor results at the auctions, which are viewed as bellwether events by dealers and collectors, suggest the art market is finally softening after years of rapid growth.

The financial crisis is mostly to blame for the bleak auction results. Big spenders are hoarding cash, and with perhaps years of economic uncertainty ahead, art is unlikely to continue its rapid appreciation, making it a less-lucrative investment.

But a natural weeding out of the market may be under way.

''Some of these artists have no history,'' said Coral Gables art dealer Gary Nader. ``What is to guarantee they will keep selling for $1 million? Nothing.''

INSTANT STARS

The frenzied market has made it possible for some recent art-school graduates to become overnight millionaires. But history suggests that in the art world, early fame is no guarantee of future success.

''If you take a catalog from Christie's or Sotheby's from 20 years ago, half the artists aren't here anymore,'' said Nader, who runs Gary Nader Fine Art. ``The same thing is going to happen today.''

As the shakeout occurs, Nader predicts it will be works by ''blue chip contemporary artists'' -- known names -- that retain their values.

And there were some success stories at the New York auctions as some of the most famous work of the past century went on the block.

Kazimir Malevich's Suprematist Composition (1916), for example, sold for more than $60 million at Sotheby's Nov. 5 auction, setting a record for both the artist and a piece of Russian art. That same night, Edgar Degas' Dancer in Repose fetched just over $37 million -- an all-time record for the artist.

In contrast, at Christie's Nov. 5 auction, Edouard Manet's Fillette sur un Banc, a wistful 1880 painting of a young girl wearing a broad-brimmed hat, had no takers. It had been expected to sell for between $12 million and $18 million.

Join the discussion

Note: If this is your first time using our NEW commenting system, you will have to LOG OUT and then LOG BACK IN.

The Miami Herald is pleased to provide this opportunity to share information, experiences and observations about what's in the news. Some of the comments may be reprinted elsewhere in the site or in the newspaper. We encourage lively, open debate on the issues of the day, and ask that you refrain from profanity, hate speech, personal comments and remarks that are off point. In order to post comments, you must be a registered user of MiamiHerald.com. Your username will show along with the comments you post. Thank you for taking the time to offer your thoughts.

     Showing: Oldest first Newest first Most-recommended first Least-recommended first

@Nyx.AuthorDisplayName@ wrote on @Nyx.PostedAtTime@:

@Nyx.CommentBody@

@Nyx.Recommender@ @Nyx.AbuseReporter@