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ECONOMY

Recession should have been predictable, ex-Fed chief Volcker says

Former Federal Reserve chief Paul Volcker told an Urban Land Institute audience in Miami Beach that a recession should have been predictable.

sandron@MiamiHerald.com

Americans need to spend less and save more, and the government needs to become more trustworthy if the nation is to put its economic house in order, former Federal Reserve chairman Paul Volcker said Tuesday in a speech in Miami Beach.

Volcker, who headed the central bank under Presidents Carter and Reagan, said consumer spending has increased from 63 percent to 72 percent of the national economy since the 1960s, while the national rate of personal savings has dropped from as high as 10 percent to zero.

Meanwhile, the ratio of household debt to gross domestic product -- a measure of the total size of the economy -- has gone from 40 to 50 percent to more than 100 percent, Volcker said.

Given these facts, a recession should have been predictable, Volcker told a national convention of real estate professionals at the Miami Beach Convention Center. But he acknowledged that he had been reluctant until recently to say the national economy is indeed shrinking.

Since the collapse of the real estate market and the ensuing credit crisis, the nation has entered a period of historic economic difficulty, Volcker told members of the Urban Land Institute.

More than 5,000 ULI members are in town for the convention this week. The group includes developers, architects, urban planners and related professionals.

''I've gone through a number of crises,'' said Volcker, who was Fed chairman from 1979 to 1987, ``but I've never seen one more complicated or difficult.''

Despite parallels some have made to the Great Depression, Volcker noted that the nation remains close to full employment, compared to a peak jobless rate near 25 percent in the '30s.

''While we are in a serious recession, I do not say it is comparable at all to the Great Depression,'' he said. ``We're not facing a Great Depression, but we're facing a serious problem restoring trust and confidence.''

Volcker said trust in the government has been eroding for decades -- and deservedly so, given numerous Washington scandals.

''That, I think, has got to change,'' he said. ``There's got to be renewed respect and confidence.''

He said he thinks both presidential candidates understand that, although he has been supporting Democrat Barack Obama. Among the problems he pointed to: the role of money and lobbyists in national politics.

Volcker, who is 81, said he hopes to have a more cheerful speech to give if he addresses the group in the future.

''We've learned lessons the hard way,'' he said, ``but we do learn them.''

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