No way to sugar coat this.

In a presentation to investors in late September, JPMorgan Chase & Co., hot off of announcing its purchase of Washington Mutual Bank, predicted Florida home prices would fall another 16 percent.

It could get even worse. In the event of what it called a ''deeper recession,'' the bank projected Florida prices falling another 21 percent. A ''severe recession'' could bring prices crashing a further 36 percent.

JPMorgan assumes Florida prices have fallen 28 percent, which corresponds to what most home price indices say. So the bank is betting on a peak-to-trough decline of 44 percent in Florida (the 28 percent drop we've already seen, plus another 16 percent).

How rotten is this news? Consider this: JPMorgan predicts further home price drops of 10 percent in California and 8 percent nationally. So our decline could be twice as bad as the nation's and 60 percent worse than California's.

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