VENEZUELA

Chávez cools off Venezuelan economy

President Hugo Chávez has followed orthodox economic policies in 2008 by reducing government spending and raising the cost of borrowing money.

tbridges@miamiherald.com

President Hugo Chávez, disciple of free-market economist Milton Friedman?

Hardly.

But Chávez, the proud originator of ''21st century socialism,'' has followed orthodox economic policies during 2008 by reducing government spending and raising the cost of borrowing money. The goal: slowing the economy, relieving food shortages and tamping down inflation.

The policies have worked. Real purchasing power has fallen during 2008 for the first time in three years, even while rising oil prices have pumped billions and billions of more dollars into Venezuela's treasury.

Adopting the monetarist policies that Friedman so famously championed is likely to be only a temporary phenomenon, however. Analysts expect Chávez to return to his free-spending, populist policies in the run-up to the November state and local elections.

The latest economic policies show a pragmatic side of Chávez that is not normally associated with him.

Still, the normally loquacious president has said little if anything about reversing direction and adopting policies advocated by mainstream economists.

Caracas-based economist Pedro Palma offers probably the best explanation of why.

''The government is seeing that socialism is not functioning like they want it to,'' Palma said. ``So they're having to follow basic economics by adopting neo-liberal policies.''

The government has raised the interest rate that credit card companies can charge, from 28 percent to 33 percent. Bank loans can now cost 28 percent. Banks must now keep reserves of 30 percent for new deposits, up from 17.5 percent. The government has also taken money out of circulation by switching deposits of public money from private banks to government institutions that do not lend the funds.

''It is a restrictive monetary policy meant to reduce inflation,'' Palma said.

The results are already in.

Real purchasing power dropped 3.85 percent during the first four months of 2008 compared to one year earlier, the first decline in three years, said analyst Luis Vicente León.

Consumption dropped 3.2 percent during the first four months, he added.

Economic growth during the first four months was 6 percent to 7 percent, compared with 8.8 percent a year earlier and 10.3 percent in 2006.

''I believe that the government is applying an orthodox economic policy, but it is not doing so publicly,'' León said.

Inflation has slowed but is still galloping at the fastest clip in Latin America, about 29 percent over the past year, threatening in particular the higher standard of living acquired by millions of poor Venezuelans during Chávez's nine years in power.

The net effect of his recent policies, Palma said, is to reduce the amount of bolívares available for the purchase of goods.

Combined with other government policies meant to equalize supply and demand -- the government reduced the interest rate that manufacturing companies must pay for borrowing from 28 percent to 19 percent -- Chávez has reduced shortages of milk, chicken, eggs and other products.

To be sure, Chávez has not become a free-market fan overnight. In 2008, he has also nationalized the country's biggest steel maker, a major dairy company and a meatpacking company. Indeed, he raised the minimum wage 30 percent this month.

Analysts expect him to begin spending heavily, with his political reputation on the line in the November elections.

''In the second half of the year, the government will spend freely in the street to win the elections,'' León said.

 

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