Florida consumers' confidence falls amid unemployment concerns

Florida's consumer confidence fell three points to 69 this month amid concerns over the state's high unemployment rate, according to a University of Florida survey released Tuesday.

``We had expected consumer confidence to fluctuate in the upper 60s to low 70s for the next several months, so a decline was not a surprise,'' Chris McCarty, the survey director of UF's Bureau of Economic and Business Research, said in a release. ``There are reasons for growing pessimism, particularly lingering employment issues that are expected to get worse over the next several months.''

State-wide unemployment hit 11.2 percent in October, the highest figure in three decades, and economists expect the rate to remain in the double digits through next year.

South Florida home prices, consumer confidence edge up

Florida's consumer confidence and home prices both inched up for the first time in months, amid signs that the real estate market is stabilizing and hopes that the worst of the recession may be behind us.

Home prices in the Miami-Fort Lauderdale area rose by 0.5 percent from May to June, their first month-to-month increase since December 2006, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index, which doesn't include condo sales. Compared to last June, however, prices were still down by 23 percent.

In addition, Florida's Consumer Confidence Index, which measures the way households feel about the economy and their personal finances, rose from 67 to 70 between July and August, according to the Bureau of Economic and Business Research at the University of Florida.

Rise in sales fuels a boost for markets

Improved retail sales gave Wall Street a boost Monday but provided little hope for a robust holiday shopping season that might invigorate the economic recovery.

The October figures, driven by a surge in auto sales, exceeded economists' expectations. Yet consumers are so squeezed by tight credit and rising unemployment that economists don't expect to see significant spending until well after year's end. Even optimists predict scant improvement over last year's holiday season.

Consumer spending accounts for about 70 percent of total economic activity, so wary shoppers are a worrisome sign for retailers entering the crucial holiday season.

Indexes give mixed signals

Home prices in South Florida continued to eke out modest gains even as confidence in the economy stalled, according to two widely-watched reports released Tuesday, sending mixed messages to a jittery market during the run-up to the critical holiday-shopping season.

The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller home-price index for Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties climbed 1.1 percent from July to August -- its fourth consecutive gain. Nationally, the index was up 1.2 percent.

Meanwhile, after improving for three straight months, Florida's Consumer Confidence Index was flat in October versus September. The survey is key because consumers account for about two-thirds of all spending and their confidence levels are often an accurate predictor of retail sales.

Two key economic indicators show improvement

Two key economic markers in Florida -- consumer confidence and a much-watched home price index -- showed a second consecutive month of improvement, offering further evidence the recession is easing, though a long recovery likely awaits, according to economists. The S&P/Case-Shiller home price index showed South Florida home prices posted their second, albeit modest, monthly gain of 1.3 percent in July, as evidence of strong sales and shrinking inventory helped to firm up prices. The index, however, was still down from a year ago, by 21 percent. Meantime, new figures from the University of Florida show consumer confidence rose three points in September to 74, following a revised increase of four points in August. The two-month trend indicates more than a margin of error blip as previous bumps in the index may have suggested.

``This is real,'' said Chris McCarty, survey director of UF's Bureau of Economic and Business. ``Consumers have been hearing the recession is over, or the worst of it, and this