INVESTING
Further gains predicted on Wall Street
History suggests a further rise in the stock market, an investment strategist said.
BY KATE GIBSON
MarketWatch
NEW YORK -- As stocks keep climbing, there's an argument to be made that Wall Street's recovery has come too far, too fast. But others say a little perspective adds impetus to the view of further positive equity returns to come.
Investors, especially those who stuck to the sidelines for much of the market's rally, ``remain astonished at the pace of gains the market has logged since the early March bottom,'' wrote Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Harris Private Bank, in a note.
But if the market's eight-month advance is viewed in a larger context, the S&P 500 Index is still 15 percent below where it had settled on the weekend before Lehman's collapse in September 2008 and nearly 33 percent under the record level hit in October 2007.
While cautioning that short-term pullbacks and corrections are likely to play out in the months ahead, Ablin points to historical trends in making a bullish case.
Investors with a 12-month time horizon, he said, are likely to reap the rewards of strong stock returns.
At the end of October, the market stood nearly 14 percent above its 10-month moving average, but such a lofty level doesn't constitute the ``sign of impending doom as many naysayers suggest,'' he added.
Since 1950, there have been 117 months in which the market has traded between 10 percent and 15 percent above its 10-month moving average.
``Of the subsequent 12-month returns, the market has been positive in 102 of the occurrences or 87 percent of the time with average and median returns of 16.96 percent and 17.14 percent, respectively,'' Ablin wrote.
Historical trends aside, others believe market fundamentals don't justify share prices at current levels.
The market poses a ``quandary for investors who believe in close historical relationships among share prices, earnings and balance sheets,'' said Michael Farr, president of Farr Miller & Washington.
However, ``a nonstop supply of monetary opiates could keep a dead elephant jogging for miles,'' Farr commented, referring to ongoing government-stimulus programs as well as the Federal Reserve's easy-money monetary policy.
``If equity markets are being driven by artificial stimulus, then following the law of physics about objects in motion, they should continue to be driven as long as the stimulus is applied. The ugly question is: `How long can it last?' `` he said.
For one answer, Farr points to Benjamin Graham, an American economist and professional investor, who famously said: ``Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.''
For his part, Ablin -- who acknowledges his premise is based solely on momentum -- cites a basic rule of physics: Bodies in motion tend to stay in motion, unless acted upon by an outside force. ``For now, stay long the rebound while we watch for any signs of an outside force,'' he said.




















My Yahoo
@Nyx.replyAnswerText@