COVER STORY
The Americas navigate U.S. crisis
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BY JANE BUSSEY
jbussey@MiamiHerald.com
The mood was grim in the Buenos Aires offices of Lehman Brothers after the venerable Wall Street firm filed for bankruptcy. Jobs were on the line. But then came word that the Argentine operation would be part of Barclays PLC's acquisition of some Lehman Brothers divisions.
A week of anxiety gave way to celebration, said Hector Cohen, managing director in Argentina.
Just as the Lehman office in Argentina survived, Latin America has shown staying power during the credit crisis that has engulfed the U.S. financial system. Despite rising fears and forecasts predicting an economic slowdown in the region, most Latin American economies have shown resilience amid the U.S. market convulsions.
There are warning signs, of course. Inflation is creeping up, energy and commodity prices have descended from the stratospheric highs of earlier this year and booming imports are outpacing exports, threatening current account surpluses. Poverty, unemployment and underemployment also remain persistently high.
And the U.S. financial crisis is far from over.
''The big risk for Latin America is that the U.S. financial problems and the fallout begin to weaken the global economy,'' said Manuel Lasaga, president of Strategic Information Services in Coral Gables. ``In a worldwide recession, all countries are going to feel the pain.''
Fallout from the U.S. financial crisis, as well as strengthening democracy in the region and security issues, are expected to be among the hot topics at this week's 12th annual Americas Conference. It will be presented by The Miami Herald, Florida International University, the state of Florida and the Inter-American Development Bank, at the Biltmore Hotel in Coral Gables from Wednesday to Friday.
Many factors have helped Latin America and Caribbean countries weather the storm -- at least so far. Stronger economies fortified by tighter government spending, heftier foreign reserves, record exports and steady consumer spending all mean the region is less dependent on global financing than in the past.
Since Eastern Europe and Asia have been the favored destinations of global foreign investment in recent years, hot money did not pour in to Latin America and therefore was not suddenly withdrawn when the market panic overtook financial markets to the North.
LESS DEPENDENT
The region also is less economically dependent on the United States, having forged stronger ties with other areas of the world. Latin America's exports to the United States, for example, have dropped from 57 percent of the region's total exports in 2000 to 40 percent in 2007. Trade with Asia now counts for almost 10 percent of the region's foreign sales, compared with 4 percent in 2000.
Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez underscored that point when he arrived in Beijing for a state visit last week, declaring Venezuela was not ''the backyard of the United States.'' He predicted that within four years, Venezuela's crude oil exports to China would triple from the current 360,000 barrels per day to one million barrels per day -- close to the 1.2 million barrels per day currently exported to the United States.
Still, the region is not immune from the strains on its financial markets as stocks plummet, borrowing costs rise and foreign reserves drop as governments try to shore up their currencies.
`LATE TO THE PARTY'
The U.S. credit crisis has battered the confidence of booming Brazil, for example. Eight years after Mexico did, Brazil finally got Wall Street's seal of approval in April when its debt was deemed investment grade. ''It's as if we are arriving late in a big party and when we finally arrive, the party is over,'' said Miriam Leitao, a leading financial commentator for Brazil's O Globo media company.
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