International cargo carriers are struggling to stay afloat in the face of a worldwide recession that has slashed cargo demand, reduced international trade and increased competition among shipping lines, executives said Wednesday at a joint sea and air cargo conference.

``The news for our industry is sobering,'' said Carlos Velez, vice president and managing director for Latin America at APL, a global transportation and logistics company.

``Our industry is on the path to lose $20 billion this year and for the first time in decades, we will have negative trade growth.''

The APL executive was one of several speakers at the first day of the three-day SeaCargo Americas conference and exhibition, which is being held simultaneously with AirCargo Americas. Both events are organized by the World Trade Center Miami, the Port of Miami and the Miami International Airport.

More than 5,500 people from 61 countries are registered to attend the joint exhibition at the DoubleTree Miami Mart Hotel and Convention Center, said Charlotte Gallogly, president of the World Trade Center Miami.

Velez, whose company lost $361 million in the first half of this year, said the outlook for the industry is grim with more losses, more cost cutting and more consolidation to come.

International carriers likely will need two to three years to recover, he added.

NEW VESSELS

The APL executive, whose comments were echoed by other shipping company officials, pointed out that the situation is complicated by the fact that carriers who ordered new cargo ships before the recession were forced to receive new vessels this year, when they already suffered from overcapacity and low freight rates caused by heightened competition.

In 2010, carriers will be obliged to receive even more new vessels that were ordered before 2008.

Velez said freight rates for his firm were 30 percent below those in effect last year. That means customers are enjoying lower freight rates but companies are struggling to compete in a shrinking market.

Many carriers have responded to the trade contraction by laying off workers and eliminating routes. Seagoing carriers idled about 11 percent of their capacity in 2009, Velez said.

Shipping executives' outlook on 2010 prospects varied. Roland Malins-Smith, president of SeaFreight Line and SeaFreight Agencies, which provide cargo service between Florida and the Caribbean, said he expects 5 percent to 7 percent growth next year, while Velez noted that estimates range from zero to 7 percent. Bruce Brecheisen, executive vice president of Seaboard Marine, says his company is ``realistic for the short-term but optimistic for the long-term.''

RECENT UPTICK

Brecheisen and other carrier executives say they have noted a recent uptick in cargo volume due to companies rebuilding inventories but are not clear about what it means. ``We don't know if it's sustainable or not,'' he said.

Air cargo companies also have seen a recent uptick in cargo volume following the decline that began last year, but no one is sure if growth will be maintained in 2010 and beyond.

Juan N. Cento, FedEx president for Latin America and the Caribbean, said his company has not laid off workers or eliminated routes in the region. Instead, FedEx continues to invest, inaugurating an expanded cargo facility and sorting plant in Guadalajara, Mexico.

The fate of the air and sea cargo industries is vitally important to South Florida.

International trade is a key factor in the region's economic growth, generating tens of thousands of jobs. Trade for the Miami Customs District, stretching from Palm Beach County to the Keys, totaled more than $90 billion last year but was down nearly 15 percent during the first half of 2009.

``The objective of this combined event is to increase two-way cargo growth and international business in the Western Hemisphere,'' Gallogly said.

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