Two key economic markers in Florida -- consumer confidence and a much-watched home price index -- showed a second consecutive month of improvement, offering further evidence the recession is easing, though a long recovery likely awaits, according to economists. The S&P/Case-Shiller home price index showed South Florida home prices posted their second, albeit modest, monthly gain of 1.3 percent in July, as evidence of strong sales and shrinking inventory helped to firm up prices. The index, however, was still down from a year ago, by 21 percent. Meantime, new figures from the University of Florida show consumer confidence rose three points in September to 74, following a revised increase of four points in August. The two-month trend indicates more than a margin of error blip as previous bumps in the index may have suggested.

``This is real,'' said Chris McCarty, survey director of UF's Bureau of Economic and Business. ``Consumers have been hearing the recession is over, or the worst of it, and this is a reflection of that,'' he said, pointing to the stabilization of the stock market, falling gas prices and a bottoming out in home values in many parts of the state.

``A big part of the problem was the lack of knowledge of what your wealth actually was. A house is a big part of wealth and when prices are falling you just don't know what you have,'' McCarty said.

Nationally, consumer confidence dipped by 1.4 percent to 53.1, according to The Conference Board, a New York-based business research group. That portends ill for retailers with hopes pegged to robust holiday spending.

The Case-Shiller index, which uses a complex algorithm to measure the repeat sales of the same homes in a market, rose in July by 1.3 percent in the greater Miami metropolitan area, following a .5 percent increase in June. It does not include condos.

Statistics from the Florida Association of Realtors, which look at the median sale price of homes listed by Realtors, showed the median existing single family home price in Miami-Dade rose 1 percent between July and August to $194,800 and decreased by 1 percent in Broward to $217,000.

The medians were down 29 percent and 20 percent, respectively, compared to a year ago.

The measures from both Realtors and Case-Shiller together appear to indicate the market has struck a bottom, though some analysts predict the pending release of a backlog of foreclosures could keep prices depressed for some time.

Only two of the 20 markets studied by Case-Schiller saw month-to-month declines, Las Vegas and Seattle.

While, along with other factors, a stabilizing home market may be helping to buoy consumer confidence, Floridians are still pessimistic about the state of their own personal finances. The UF survey showed that consumer sentiment stayed at 44 in September, the same as the previous month, which is only five points better than its lowest point ever in December. Expectations about the state of their personal finances a year from now fell three points to 81.

Florida's shaky employment market could be to blame. Unemployment stood at near 11 percent. Mark Vitner, an economist with Wachovia who tracks Florida, said he expects the unemployment rate will increase until the end of the year.

``We will see losses gradually dissipate into the middle of next year and by late 2010 we should start seeing improvements and gains,'' Vitner said, ``The bulk of the large layoffs are behind us. What employers are doing now is reducing employment through attrition, but they are not making wholesale adjustments to their staffing.''

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