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Poll: McCain's slight edge in Florida may hinge on economy

meklas@MiamiHerald.com

John McCain is nursing a narrow lead over Barack Obama in Florida even as voters say the Democrat is more trusted to handle their most important issue: the economy, according to a new Miami Herald poll.

The poll, taken Sept. 14-17, when Wall Street turmoil dominated world and national news, gives McCain a narrow lead over Obama -- 47 percent to 45 -- with 7 percent undecided. The poll's margin of error was 3.5 percentage points.

But if the economic crisis deepens, ''Obama is in a position to improve his poll numbers, given the confidence in his handling of the economy,'' said Democratic pollster Tom Eldon of Schroth, Eldon & Associates, who conducted the poll with Republican pollster Kellyanne Conway. The poll was also underwritten by the St. Petersburg Times and Bay News 9.

McCain's razor-thin lead virtually guarantees, however, that ''once again, Florida is going to be the pivotal battleground state in this election,'' he said.

The survey of 800 likely voters echoed the economic jitters of the nation, as 43 percent of voters said the economy should be the next president's top concern. That's a three-to-one margin over the next two top issues: managing the war in Iraq, at 14 percent, and protecting us from terrorism, at 12 percent.

When voters were asked who will be the most effective commander in chief, McCain was favored 55 to 38 percent. For those who said terrorism was their top issue, McCain got a whopping 92 percent of the vote. When it came to managing the war in Iraq or Afghanistan, McCain was favored 54-40 percent.

But when asked which of the candidates will best ''improve the economy,'' Obama was chosen over McCain 49 to 40 percent for all voters and 53 to 30 percent among independent voters. For voters who also answered that the economy is the most important issue, Obama led 56 to 34 percent.

And on the question of which candidate they trust to ''change the way Washington works'', Obama leads by a 48 to 35 percent margin over McCain.

So why don't Obama's overall numbers reflect the clear advantage he has on the economy?

''That's the $64,000 question,'' said Conway. She suggests that while Florida voters want change, most of them aren't ready to accept the change Obama is offering.

''People have a love affair with the concept of change and are scared to death to effectuate it,'' she said. ``People don't like to take risks when times are tough.''

Pinecrest attorney Nick Bohn is one of those voters. His top concern is the economy, particularly the national financial crisis, taxes and wind storm insurance. But the Republican says Obama's promise of change is exactly what he wants to avoid.

''I'm just one of those guys who wants to be left alone,'' he said. ``I don't like big changes. I like consistency.''

Rick Pribell of Deerfield Beach is a Republican who sees Obama's message differently. The 44-year-old commercial Realtor is planning to cross party lines and vote for Obama because the nation's economy is ``appalling and I'm scared.''

''Everyone's spending more, but no one seems to be making more,'' he said. ``There seems to be a growing number of people going into poverty. Obama has an understanding and desire to help the working man. He has more interest in doing the right thing, not only the self-serving thing.''

The crash of the subprime mortgage market froze business for West Palm Beach real estate agent Steve Bate. Now the 47-year-old Democrat is worried about a possible decline in the quality of life in America.

Miami Herald staff writer Jose Pagliery contributed to this report.

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