If there's one sport that lends itself more to winning wagers than the rest, it has to be Major League Baseball. Unlike football or basketball, point spreads do not come into play, so the late meaningless touchdown or the missed free throws at the end of the game will never come back to bite you.
Trends are a little easier to digest in baseball as well. Since the starting pitcher dominates the landscape, identifying the imperfect ones is half the battle. How much harder is it to hope one of those crazy football trends holds up the exact week you play it than to bet confidently against one of the least profitable pitchers in the majors on a game in, game out basis?
Here's a perfect example. From 1998 through 2006, Washington State was 1-7 ATS the game prior to playing Stanford. (One year, 2000, didn't count since the Cougars opened the season against the Cardinal.) Those who waited patiently last fall, hoping to score on November 3 when Cal hosted Wazoo were in for quite an unpleasant surprise when the Cougars, getting two touchdowns, only lost by a field goal and covered the spread.
For those tired of trying to convert on an angle that seems to possess no rhyme or reason whatsoever, I have the perfect solution: Bet against the Tigers' Nate Robertson every game he starts for the rest of the season, and you won't have to worry about anything else.
Let me tell you a little bit about our hero. In 2005, his second full season in the bigs, the lefthander from Wichita, Kansas, won seven games while losing 16. (The Tigers, as a team, went 12-20 in his 32 starts.) If one were astute enough to feel this trend coming on, they would have cleared $587 just by wagering $100 on all his starts. If you missed out, no worries, 2006 wasn't that far away.
That year was almost identical to '05 as the bespectacled southpaw again failed more often than not, finishing -596 units for a team that went all the way to the World Series. You want an indication of how poor a pitcher he was that season? How about this stat: Detroit posted a winning record for every starter with at least eight starts, except for Robertson.
The following season was a trying one for the Tigers as they failed to make the postseason after the miraculous run the previous campaign. Despite the seven-game drop-off from 95 wins to 88, Mike Maroth, Jeremy Bonderman and Justin Verlander all saw a positive upswing in the won/lost units category.
Unfortunately for Mr. Robertson (but fortunate for those playing against him), he was not one of the lucky ones. In fact, he witnessed his personal record drop from 13-13 in '06 to 9-13 in '07, while the team had won just 11 of his 30 starts as opposed to 15 of 32 the year before. Those wealthy folks who stayed with the trend were rewarded with $1,385 in 2007.
So how is Robertson doing this season, you might ask? He certainly hasn't turned things around. In fact, he's been one of the main reasons the Tigers have gotten off to such a terrible start. His ERA after seven starts is teetering on disaster at 6.64, and Detroit has won in just two of his appearances. Overall, he's on the negative side once again at -394 units.
In addition, one has to wonder what the linemakers were thinking when they made him the favorite over Boston a few days ago. The Tigers had lost four in a row and that stat alone should have had folks jumping on the Red Sox. Not to beat a dead horse, but the predominant trend in all of baseball, save for wagering against Robertson, is to bet hard and heavy against teams on losing streaks longer than three games.
So what ended up happening in the Boston-Detroit contest last Tuesday evening? Did our hero "come through" for us when we needed him most? Of course. The game was pretty much over after the second inning when the Sox ripped Robertson for three runs en route to a 5-0 victory.
TEAM TRENDS
Want to know what clubs were the most profitable wagers the past three seasons combined? There were only six National League teams in the black, with Washington topping the list at +4,109 units. Colorado was a distant second at +2,533 and Arizona wound up third with a profit margin of $1,794 for every $100 wagered.
Two of those three clubs are holding up their part of the bargain in 2008. As of Thursday, May 8, the Rockies are floundering after their 14-21 start already down 698 units. And if it weren't for Aaron Cook, they'd be even farther down the well. Take away Cook's +530 and the reigning NL champions would be -1,228 units.
Arizona is holding up as well at +1,007, number two on the Senior Circuit behind Florida. It certainly helps when your star pitcher is 8-0. Take away Brandon Webb, and the Diamondbacks are +176, but they have been one of the better teams in the game to wager on and it sure looks like they will remain near the top all season long.
Elsewhere, the Nationals are riding the Tim Redding (+481 units) train to place themselves on the plus side this year. Without the 30-year-old, the Nats would be in the red at -414.
AMERICAN LEAGUE NUMBERS
In recent history, the majority of American League clubs have thrived when compared to their NL counterparts. Eleven of the 14 teams finished on the plus side from '05-07, but that has much more to do with the Yankees and Orioles than anything else.
New York was the least profitable AL team at -4,082 units those three seasons, and Baltimore was not to far behind at -3,536. The next closest, and the only other team in the red, was Tampa Bay, with a loss of only 103 units.
On the other side of the spectrum, only two squads have finished in the black all three years: the Angels and Blue Jays. The former is holding up its end of the bargain once again at +579 units, but the latter holds the fourth-worst mark in the AL behind Seattle, Detroit and Cleveland at -627.
It's best to keep track of these records on a weekly, if not daily, basis to see how these teams do the rest of May.
THREE-YEAR-OLDS IN ACTION THIS SATURDAY
Big Brown has one more week to get himself fit for racing's middle jewel as the Preakness will be contested on May 17 at Pimlico, but a pair of stakes events for three-year-olds are on the docket this Saturday in Texas and New York.
The Lone Star Derby will be contested at 1 1/16, and 13 will be going postward in this grade three event. Despite his fifth-place finish in the Santa Anita Derby, El Gato Malo should be favored as the 9-5 favorite over Colonel John.
His 6 1/4 length win in the San Rafael at one mile back in January was one of the most impressive preps this year, and if he runs back to that effort he will be very tough to beat.
The second favorite should be the Lanni Family Trust entry of Samba Rooster and Limestone Edge. The "Rooster" was game in defeat vs. Behindatthebar in the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland on April 19, holding onto second after cutting out blazing early fractions of 22 3/5 and 45 1/5. Prior to that event, Harlem Rocker, a horse that could give Big Brown a run for his money in the Preakness, nailed him in the stretch in an allowance race at Gulfstream Park.
Limestone Edge has picked up victories in two of his last three starts, defeating Ready's Echo, who is entered in the Peter Pan, in his previous effort. And like El Gato Malo, this will be his first start on traditional dirt, so improvement is expected.
One long shot to keep in mind is Real Appeal. He had zero chance in the Illinois Derby last month as he was saddled with the outside post on a day inside speed was winning almost everything in sight, including the Illinois Derby. The Thomas Amoss-trained colt ran last that afternoon, beaten over 20 lengths. However, he looked good knocking off 10 others in the Texas Heritage Stakes in his only other 2008 start after running a solid fourth in the grade two Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill Downs last winter. If he had drawn further inside in this event, he would be the choice, but once again, he'll have to come from the outside, as he was saddled with post 13.
Look for El Gato Malo to sit off the early speed (mostly Samba Rooster, Leonides and My Pal Charlie) and roll home with a decisive victory. Limestone Edge would have been the pick to run second, but there'll be no value as he is coupled with Samba Rooster and that entry will be the second choice in the wagering. Real Appeal breezed a sharp five furlongs in 1:00 4/5 last week, showing the Illinois Derby didn't take too much out of him. Go with him to round out the exacta.
THE PETER PAN
Most of the horses running in the Lone Star Derby will not be seen in the Belmont Stakes the first Saturday in June, but the Peter Pan could have a huge impact on the Triple Crown finale.
Casino Drive, who drew the rail, has only won a maiden and it came out in Japan, but he is bred to win the Belmont as his dam has produced the last two winners of "the Test of Champions" in Jazil and Rags to Riches. In an odd move, he'll be ridden by Big Brown's rider, Kent Desormeaux on Saturday, which will leave the son of Mineshaft in need of a new jockey if he is indeed victorious in the Peter Pan. On the other hand, he hasn't been out since late February, and this will be his first start racing counter-clockwise.
Another foreign horse will be coming from Casino Drive's outside in post two, as Tomcito looks to gain his first win in North America after rallying for third in the Florida Derby and settling for a sixth-place finish in the Lexington. This stout closer should improve off his last race, but there doesn't seem to be that much speed in this event, so it's doubtful he will be able to hit the board.
Golden Spikes benefited from the speed-favoring surface in the Illinois Derby to finish second to Recapturetheglory and ahead of Denis of Cork. He is the poster child for "bouncing," as his Beyer numbers throughout his career have been like a pogo stick from the get-go. His seven career numbers are as follows: 73, 64, 87, 78, 90, 83 and 95, so look for another drop-off this Saturday.
If there's one horse that can run with Golden Spikes on the lead, it's Mint Lane. The son of Maria's Mon was the pacesetter in the Federico Tesio, and almost held off eventual winner Icabad Crane, losing by just a head after being collared through the stretch.
He showed tremendous toughness and determination in the final 1/16th of a mile fighting back on the inside, and should be ready for any and all challengers in this one. Even though he has yet to win at the distance, his second to Icabad Crane was huge, and his pedigree suggests the 1 1/8 will be no problem as one of his half-sisters ran second to champion Azeri in the 2003 Vanity Invitational Handicap at 1 1/8. Additionally, if the track is sloppy - and it probably will be after tons of rain on Friday - he should love the off going, as his dam sire is Conquistador Cielo, who ate up the slop throughout his career.
Go with Mint Lane to upset the field and win the Peter Pan with the lightly- raced Ready's Echo finishing second.
