In 17 previous seasons here on The Friday Page our reasonably happy marriage of meticulous research and utter guesswork has birthed a career winning percentage of .637 overall and .506 vs. the point spread. Friends of mine who have their bookie on speed-dial tell me plus-.500 against the Vegas number picking every game every week every year is impressive. That's why they're my friends. They lie to make me feel good. Our personal-best seasons have been .705 straight up and .574 vs. the spread. Last year we were solid at .648 and .529. Thanks for joining us each Friday once again, but, as always, place actual bets based on my picks at your own considerable risk.

Note: Our Thursday night pick was Giants (-4) over Redskins, 23-20.

Last season: 166-90 overall (.648); 130-116-10 (.529) vs. the spread.

JETS AT DOLPHINS

• When: 1 p.m. Sunday • TV: 4, 12

• Line: NYJ by 3 • Cote: MIA 20-17

''AAAWWWK!'' trumpets the Upset Bird with a majestic swoop. ``A New Beginning. New Begaawwk!'' Big Tuna, Tony Sparano, Jake Long and of course Chad Pennington vs. his ex-team -- all new, plus the comeback of Ronnie Brown and latest reincarnation of Ricky Williams. So much about this game to get excited about, not to mention Brett Favre blaspheming to wear a Jets uni, causing national interest and nausea across Wisconsin. Don't get the idea by this pick that I think the makeover of a 1-15 team is complete. Instead, get the idea by this pick that I think the Planes are way overrated and a playoff team only in the hubris-addled minds of the NFL's most obnoxious fans, the ones who chant ``J-E-T-S!'' to allay a widely held belief they are too dumb to spell. NYJ has owned this series lately, but this isn't the same Miami. This Miami will control both ball and clock, and send Jets fans slinking from the stadium feeling very ''G-L-U-M!'' ``Good pick. Even Namath guarantees a Miami win,'' notes U-Bird. ``A-A-W-K!''

VIKINGS AT PACKERS

• When: 7 p.m. Monday • TV: ESPN

• Line: GB by 2 ½ • Cote: MIN 27-20

Tough call out the gate for the GOTW panel, but we'll take a Monday night division battle at Lambeau for NFC North supremacy, highlighted by the first career start of Pack QB Aaron Rodgers and the sophomore bow of Vikes RB sensation Adrian Peterson. Call it an upset! Minny's stout defense (better with addition of DE Jared Allen) will remind Rodgers he's no Brett Favre, while Peterson makes his fantasy owners happy fast. Yes, GeeBees have won four straight in series including 34-0 last November. But sometimes the trend is not your friend. Sometimes the trend must end.

LIONS AT FALCONS

• When: 1 p.m. Sunday • TV: None

• Line: DET by 3 • Cote: DET 31-23

Detroit launches its 75th franchise year with an unearned hype that only grew with the league's only unbeaten (4-0) preseason. Don't believe it. The Lions still smell like my feet. It's just that the Falcons smell worse -- a match made in Dog heaven! Home-mutt Falcs have a decent upset shot here but are in rebuilding mode under new coach Mike Smith and new rookie-QB Matt Ryan, who'll be good but needs time. Like Motown despite new RB Rudi Johnson accusing fellow back Tatum Bell of stealing his luggage. No, seriously. 'Attaway to build team camaraderie, huh?!

Join the discussion

Note: If this is your first time using our NEW commenting system, you will have to LOG OUT and then LOG BACK IN.

The Miami Herald is pleased to provide this opportunity to share information, experiences and observations about what's in the news. Some of the comments may be reprinted elsewhere in the site or in the newspaper. We encourage lively, open debate on the issues of the day, and ask that you refrain from profanity, hate speech, personal comments and remarks that are off point. In order to post comments, you must be a registered user of MiamiHerald.com. Your username will show along with the comments you post. Thank you for taking the time to offer your thoughts.

     Showing: Oldest first Newest first Most-recommended first Least-recommended first

@Nyx.AuthorDisplayName@ wrote on @Nyx.PostedAtTime@:

@Nyx.CommentBody@

@Nyx.Recommender@ @Nyx.AbuseReporter@