LEGISLATURE

Rubio's political future still in question

House Speaker Marco Rubio's political career will soon come to at least a temporary halt. He's unsure what he will do after he leaves the Legislature this year.

gfineout@MiamiHerald.com

After a hectic and often frustrating first year as one of the three most powerful leaders in state government, House Speaker Marco Rubio is entering the final months of his political career with looming questions about property taxes, the state budget and the fate of his ambitious legislative agenda.

And there's one other big question for the Miami Republican: Where does he go from here?

Though he is just 36 years old, his political career will come to a halt in November when he leaves office because of term limits, and so far he has given few clues about what he will do next.

Rubio insists he has no ''master plan'' for his future, an acknowledgment that the dynamic yet sometimes confrontational politician is boxed in until at least 2010, when he could seek statewide office. Brief rumblings that he might mount a challenge to Carlos Alvarez for Miami-Dade mayor have fallen silent.

Instead Rubio will wait, a risky move that could take him further out of the spotlight and make it harder for him to raise money when he is no longer in a position of power. To counter that, Rubio has gotten involved in a citizens' initiative on property taxes and plans to follow the path set by former Gov. Jeb Bush, helping establish a nonprofit think tank to push his ideas.

FAMILY MATTERS

Rubio, an attorney with the firm of Broad and Cassel, says any decisions about his future will be based on what makes sense for his family.

''There's just no master plan,'' he said. ``I laugh at these articles that say Marco Rubio wants to be governor. Have they talked to my wife? I really don't know what the future holds. When I started I wasn't married and I didn't have children. I now have four children and a bigger mortgage. The decisions I make are no longer my own.''

Part of the speculation around Rubio has arisen in the wake of his constant challenges of Gov. Charlie Crist, a fellow Republican, on gambling, energy and property taxes since Crist entered office a year ago. Rubio and Crist are likely to clash yet again in the upcoming session, with Rubio contending that Florida's $2 billion budget shortfall calls for deep budget cuts and a rethinking of how state government works. Crist, by contrast, has called for using reserves and other state accounts as a ''bridge to the future'' until the economy recovers.

''I think that going forward, to the extent there is a big vacuum that Jeb Bush left, that Marco is poised to fill it,'' said House Democratic leader Dan Gelber of Miami Beach. ``I think Marco very naturally wore that conservative robe that Jeb left behind. I don't think Marco is ambitious for the sake of ambition, but I think he has an agenda that he would proudly advance if given another opportunity.''

Rubio started out his term as House speaker with a book he put together, 100 Innovative Ideas for Florida's Future, that he called a blueprint for action by the Legislature. He contends it has been a success, saying it gave lawmakers a way to lessen the influence of lobbyists. But most of the ideas were overshadowed by just one: Rubio's relentless push to cut property taxes, which led to two special sessions last year.

Rubio also had trouble getting the Legislature to pass some of the major portions of his 100 Ideas, including updating the state's public school curriculum or creating a ''children's zone'' in Liberty City that would coordinate services for needy children.

''I think it probably stimulated a lot of debate, but at the end of the day I'm not so certain that 100 Ideas had a tremendous impact on the state of Florida,'' said Rep. Jack Seiler, a Wilton Manors Democrat.

Lawmakers did agree to cut property taxes, including placing Amendment 1 on the ballot, which was overwhelmingly approved by voters last month. But Rubio said the measure -- which increased the homestead exemption and allows homeowners to transfer tax savings to a new home -- didn't go far enough. He never actively campaigned for it.

It is unlikely that Rubio would run against the popular Crist in 2010. But he is building a potential network of voters that he could tap into once he decides he wants to run for elected office again.

Rubio has been credited for helping a grass-roots group called Cut Property Taxes Now coalesce behind a proposal that would ask voters to cap all yearly property taxes at 1.35 percent of a property's value.

The group failed to gather enough signatures to qualify for the November 2008 ballot, though the organization got more than 120,000 signatures once Rubio got involved. He traveled around the state promoting the amendment, did Spanish radio ads urging voters to sign the petition and raised money for the group.

''It was absolutely significant he lent his support,'' said Lee Sullivan, the former mayor of Panama City Beach and chairman of Cut Property Taxes Now. ``It brought it to a level [that] on its own it would not have attained that quickly.''

Now Rubio and other lawmakers want the Legislature to put the measure on the ballot. If that fails, the group has the names of thousands of potential voters to reach out to if the amendment makes the 2010 ballot, which could coincide with a Rubio bid for statewide office.

GRIP ON POWER

Rubio's ability to raise money and rally people to his cause, however, will begin to wane as his grip on power ends right after the 2008 legislative session ends in May. And history isn't on his side: Most House speakers and Senate presidents who have tried to use their legislative careers as a springboard to statewide office have failed.

''The world changes once you term out,'' Rubio concedes.

Rubio will try to remain in the public eye with 100 Ideas.Org., an organization headed by William Holly, the president of a Miami commercial real estate firm who first got his start in business working for Armando Codina and Jeb Bush. Rubio has already raised $50,000 for the nonprofit think tank.

Those close to Rubio are convinced that Florida's first Cuban-American House speaker will remain in the political spotlight. And even Rubio admits that he doesn't plan to stay quiet once he leaves the Legislature.

''You know I love policy. You know I love politics,'' he said. ``I am going to speak out on those issues in some form. I'm not going to lose my interest in public policy, I'm not going to lose my interest in the things I believe in.''

 

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