JERUSALEM -- Israel is celebrating its 60th anniversary, and this creates some fuss in the world media. Having just passed this age myself, I can say that this is a good age to fondly reflect on your past achievements, while still having a lot of plans in store for the future.
Looking back at where we started in 1948, Israel is indeed one of the greatest success stories of our time. Here is a people that, after 2,000 years of exile and after having lost a third of its population in the Holocaust, rose up again, like the phoenix from the ashes, against all odds, to build a vibrant, successful democratic state.
Economic growth
With all the wars, the guerrilla warfare and terrorism inflicted on it during those six decades, Israel not only survived, but prospered beyond all expectations: a steady annual economic growth of more than 4 percent in recent years; world-class universities; a magnificent air force; a free press, The list of accomplishments is long, but what means more than anything in my view is the revival of Israeli literature. The renaissance of the ancient Hebrew language, and the abundance of books published every year (Israelis buy more books per capita than anyone else in the world) -- this is true miracle.
In 1948, Secretary of State George C. Marshall warned against the establishment of a Jewish state. It will be wiped out by the Arab armies in two weeks, predicted the former general who had orchestrated the Allies' victory in World War II. Thank G_d, David Ben Gurion, Israel's founding father, didn't listen to him.
Cracks in the empire
The Danish physicist and Nobel Prize winner Niels Bohr said ``forecasting is difficult, especially with regards to the future.''
I will always remember an expert on the Soviet Union who predicted at a seminar in Jerusalem in the late 1980s that the USSR would last ''way into the foreseeable future.'' I dared ask him whether the cracks in the empire, already visible, signaled something. He dismissed me arrogantly. A few months later, when the Soviet Union lay in shambles, he saw me on the street and pretended he didn't know me.
People are more cautious these days about their predictions. Take Benjamin Schwartz, the literary and national editor of The Atlantic Monthly. Instead of guessing and gambling with forecasts in a recent issue, he elegantly posed a question: ``Will Israel Live to 100?''
Why question the life expectancy of Israel? Schwartz didn't refer to the Iranian nuclear threat. Maybe he believes Hillary Clinton, who, in a bid for Jewish votes, promised to wipe Iran from the face of the Earth if it attacked Israel. Schwartz instead wrote about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which, in his assessment, is insoluble.
Seeking pessimists
I tend to agree with him that unless the conflict is resolved, the future of Israel as a Jewish and democratic state is in danger. However, when Schwartz came to Israel to research his story, he unfortunately met only with pessimists, who are skeptical about a possible solution.
Next time, Mr. Schwartz, please call me. I will give you my view, which foresees (G-d forgive me) a pullout from most of the West Bank and Jordan taking responsibility for it. The same with Egypt, which will not be able to sit idly for long, when radical Islam rages on its doorstep in Gaza.
And speaking of George Marshall, we need a new Marshall Plan to resettle the Palestinian refugees instead of keeping them as a constant source of grievance and instability.
Will all this work? And will Israel live to be 100? Maybe I'm a bit shortsighted, but I can't possibly see 40 years ahead.
Great literature
Right now, all I'm thinking about is the first International Writers Festival that will take place in two weeks at Mishkenot Sha'ananim, the conference center I run in Jerusalem. Leading world writers such as Nobel Laureate Nadine Gordimer, Russell Banks, Erri de Luca and others will join Israeli colleagues such as Amos Oz, David Grossman and Meir Shalev in a salute to Israeli literature on its 60th anniversary.
We have already decided to put on this festival every two years. Maybe that's the way to reach the 100th anniversary of Israel -- one literary festival at a time. And let the doomsday prophets eat their hearts out.
Uri Dromi is a columnist based in Jerusalem.
