What happened in Havana on Sunday reminded me of Moscow in the early 1980s. After Leonid Brezhnev's passing, two old men -- first, the more open-minded Yuri Andropov, then the mummified Konstantin Chernenko -- ruled the Soviet Union. Not until 1985 did the youthful Mikhail Gorbachev take the Kremlin's reins. The rest is history.
In retrospect, it wasn't that surprising. Given the Castro brothers' obsession with ''unity'' and control, political reforms -- even within official Cuba's limited confines -- are rare. The last time they ''opened up'' a bit was in the early 1990s when, for example, direct elections to the National Assembly were first held, and the Constitution was modified to loosen somewhat the state's economic control.
Still, I expected a mixed bag, not an unequivocally conservative Council of State. Understandably, Raúl incorporated men he trusts. For decades, now first vice president José Ramón Machado Ventura has been by his side, the Communist Party's fixer of last resort. Gen. Julio Casas Regueiro, promoted to vice president and to Raúl's old post as defense minister, has overseen the military's considerable economic holdings. So much for the under-60 generations, at least for now. No country for young men, noted a European diplomat.
Indifferent, frustrated
My disappointment is inconsequential. What Cubans on the island felt when the old guard was reaffirmed is not. The under-60 crowd within the elite is still waiting. Proposed constitutional amendments to allow different individuals to preside over the Councils of State and Ministers -- Raúl assumed both -- fell by the wayside. Ordinary Cubans are seemingly indifferent or frustrated.
All the same, let's not rush to final judgment. A new Council of Ministers hasn't been named yet and probably won't be until the end of 2008. In his inaugural speech, Raúl announced a state reorganization to streamline the bureaucracy and cut the red tape. He addressed sensitive economic issues such as food production and the grossly devalued peso. Noteworthy as well was his mention of the libreta, the ration book whereby Cubans of all income levels purchase subsidized goods. Cuban economists have long criticized the libreta's absurdity.
Is Fidel still pulling the strings? While the easiest answer is a categorical Yes, I wouldn't accept at face value Raúl's request to the National Assembly that he be allowed to seek his brother's advice on important matters. It could mean that the elder Castro will still wield a veto, or it could be a public massage of his uncontainable ego.
Undoing nearly five decades of mostly one-man rule is no easy matter. By streamlining the bureaucracy, Raúl hopes to imprint his style -- institutional and orderly -- which means allowing ministers to be ministers. No more parallel networks that Fidel used to supervise the ministries, the National Assembly, the party or whatever struck his fancy. On Sunday, Raúl was emphatic about la institucionalidad, the importance of institutions.
Even under a reinforced old guard, Cuba has started to move away from the Comandante. Raúl and his inner circle of mostly military men will not brook a political opposition, but more voices will be heard from within the elite. The Council of State and the National Assembly might live up to their constitutional mandates. The Communist Party will continue to set policy, only now in more institutional, orderly fashion. The party congress that Fidel long refused to convene will likely happen soon. Raúl should then take over from his brother as general secretary.
Unintended consequences
More prickly is the economy, where almost any reform, however modest, is a substantive move from Fidel's recalcitrance. Yet, there's no way out but through the market, even at a snail's pace. The peso, for instance, will not gain in value without improving economic productivity, which, in the end, requires sustained respect for the market.
One step at a time was Sunday's message. Only results must be in evidence quickly for expectations have too often been raised and deflated. Cuban blogger Yoaní Sánchez characterized the old guard as dwelling in a bucólico letargo. Better lethargic change than suffer the old Soviet Union's fate, their thinking probably goes. Are they really so confident that things will forever go on as usual? It'd be poetic justice if their conservatism quickened the pace of events. Unintended consequences could be pesky indeed.
Marifeli Pérez-Stable is vice president for democratic governance at the Inter-American Dialogue in Washington, D.C., and a professor at Florida International University.
