SUPER BOWL 48 | 6:25 P.M. SUNDAY, FOX

Greg Cote’s Super Bowl pick

 

gcote@MiamiHerald.com

How the darts landed

Just when you’d had time to (hopefully) forget, I am duty-bound to put on the record here my results from the AFC and NFC championship games. Put it this way: I know how the Patriots and 49ers felt. I don’t think I’d ever before gone 0-2 in the semifinals both straight-up and against the spread, but it was somehow fitting, given my tough season overall. I felt two upsets. Then I felt stupid. Now I have one chance to make amends.

OverallPct.Vs. spreadPct.
Last round0-2.0000-2.000
Playoffs4-6.4002-7-1.222
Final regular season153-102 -1.600110-132-14.457

SUPER BOWL XLVIII

BRONCOS (15-3) vs. SEAHAWKS (15-3)

Line: DEN by 2.

Cote’s pick: DEN 24-20.

TV: 6:25 p.m. Sunday, Fox.

This is only the fifth Super Bowl of 48 that pits the No. 1 offense vs. the No. 1 defense in bottom-line terms of points scored and allowed — and only the second ever that is 1 vs. 1 based on yards gained and allowed. A very small sample size? Undeniably. But it is nonetheless worth noting that in those previous instances the teams that were No. 1 on the defensive side have been 4-1 on Super Sunday. That’s in case you don’t give Seattle much of a shot here (you should). Or in case you like Denver easily (you shouldn’t). So history props up the chances of Richard Sherman’s Seahawks defense prevailing. Here’s how great Seattle’s D is: Sherman might not even be the best player in his own backfield; Earl Thomas might be. Then again, there has never — ever — been an offense that scores more than Peyton Manning’s record-setting Broncos. Seattle has never had more to defend, all at once. The game could swing on which team handles the elements better. Peyton famously is only 4-7 when the kickoff temp is below 40, which it surely is likely to be Sunday evening in the Jersey swamp. All of this makes Seattle a trendy (and tempting) upset pick. But the real question is simply this: How much do you trust Peyton Manning? How much do you believe in him? Him against maybe the best defense he has ever faced. Him against the bitter cold. Him against the pressure of the stage and all the “legacy” talk. And the answer is, I trust him. Forgot to last week, but I’m a fast learner. It is Peyton’s time. His year. His season. His Sunday.

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