You know how the Dolphins are embarrassed by their Bullygate scandal? Thats about how much Im embarrassed by my 2013 season of NFL predictions thus far. I deserve to be punched by a marauding and perhaps drunken Richie Incognito. Last week began with such promise as I nailed Miamis upset of Cincy and also bulls-eyed Tampa-with-points over Seattle. But after that my week was epitomized by Colts-Texans. Had Houston in an upset and looked golden, til the Texans got bullied late. Misery has a face: Mine. [Note: Thursday-game pick was Vikings (+2 1/2) over Redskins, 28-24].
Line: MIA by 2 1/2
Cotes pick: TB 23-17
TV: 8:40 p.m. Monday, ESPN (airing in South Florida).
What a bizarre framework for this game. The winless home team with the embattled coach and the quarterback upheaval is the font of tranquility compared to the visiting Dolphins. Miamis Richie Incognito/Jonathan Martin/Bullygate mess has been a major and ongoing distraction to the team, not to mention further depleting an already bad offensive line. And you know the controversy will get the big rehash and full, grave sociological examination in prime time Monday. It is a franchise nightmare. Its impossible to say how it will affect the teams performance here, but Id guess not favorably. The game is ripe for Tampa to get off the schneid. Monday home dogs tend to be money anyway, and Tampa Bay is due after forcing strong Seattle into overtime last week. Bucs have lost five games by a single score; they are not Jacksonville awful, and they are due. T-Bays defense is decent and rookie QB Mike Glennon is 5-0 on TDs/picks the past three games. (Neat subplot: Dueling ex-Canes running backs in Lamar Miller vs. Mike James). There is a chance, of course, that Bullygate will have a rallying effect on Miami, but I think theres a greater chance that a chaotic week and a too-easy-to-overlook opponent will turn out bad for the Dolphins.
Line: NO by 7
Cotes pick: NO 34-30
TV: 8:30 p.m., NBC (airing in South Florida).
Four Week 10 games had the GOTW panels attention but this one offered prime time, Drew Brees vs. Tony Romo and the entertaining likelihood of a competitive shootout. Saints have dropped two of past three but should get back on the rails in NAwlins, where they are 4-0. Saints also have won two straight and seven of past eight vs. the Boys. You may also be assured the Cajuns defense will be amped up for Rob Ryan, who hasnt forgotten he got fired by Dallas. The bet on Saints outright assumes Jimmy Graham plays. Liking Cowboys with the points, though. Dez Bryant says he will be good to go, and DeMarco Murray should get that ground game untracked against an iffy NO run-D. Cowboys had 54 passes to nine runs last week highest ratio ever for a winning team and will need better balance here.
Line: SEA by 6 1/2
Cotes pick: ATL 24-21
TV: 1 p.m., FOX
AAAWWWK! screams the Upset Bird. Atlantaawwk! Reasons I might be nuts: Seattle is a better team, is 4-1 on the road, and (mostly) is out to avenge last years last-second 30-28 playoff loss in the Georgia Dome. Reasons I might NOT be nuts: Pete Carroll is 0-4 vs. Falcons, Birds should have Roddy White back for first time since Week 5, and Seattle which struggled to beat to beat Tampa last week has serious offensive line injuries and recent fissures in run defense. Hey, what the hell! When youre having a season like me and the Falcs, you go for broke. You got for braawwk! concurs the U-Bird, who pondered calling himself the Upset Bully this week but thought it might be in poor taste. Roddy Whaawwk!
Line: TEN by 11 1/2
Cotes pick: TEN 27-13
TV: 1 p.m., CBS
No one game stood out as the weeks worst for the Dog deliberators, in which case the default choice tends to be whatever game involves the Jaguars, who are to NFL excellence what Miley Cyrus is to role modeling for pre-teens. Jake Locker has a 103.1 passer rating in three home games, and Chris Johnson (150 yards last week) should stay hot vs. an abysmal Jax run defense. Only profound overconfidence imperils Tennessee. J-Ville is so bad, not even the law of averages applies.
LIONS (5-3) AT BEARS (5-3)
Line: DET by 2 1/2
Cotes pick: CHI 31-28
TV: 1 p.m., FOX
Chicago QB Jay Cutler is cleared to play and expected to start, a late fact the point spread here likely does not reflect. Call it a bank error in my favor. I predict games based on the lines that appear in Thursdays newspaper, period. Truthfully, I might have picked Bears even if Cutler-less. Chitown is 3-1 at home and Motown (which won in September) hasnt swept this series since 2007. Also, Lions have lost six consecutive division roadies and five in a row at The Soldier.
EAGLES (4-5) AT PACKERS (5-3)
Line: GB by 1
Cotes pick: GB 24-17
TV: 1 p.m., FOX (airing in South Florida)
Here is the difference Aaron Rodgers injury absence means: A Vegas sportsbook buddy of mine said Pack would be favored by 10 if Rodgers was throwing. Instead, backup Seneca Wallace makes it a near pick-em game. This will be only third time in past 372 games that somebody other than Brett Favre or Rodgers starts for Gee Bees. Nevertheless, in Lambeau I Trust!
RAMS (3-6) AT COLTS (6-2)
Line: IND by 9 1/2
Cotes pick: IND 27-16
TV: 1 p.m., FOX
Sometime it is best to not overcomplicate things: Andrew Luck is 10-2 at home, the Rams are 1-3 on the road and Bernie Kosar was right! Kellen Clemens isnt very good.
RAIDERS (3-5) AT GIANTS (2-6)
Line: NYG by 7 1/2
Cotes pick: NYG 28-14
TV: 1 p.m., CBS
The point spread seems too big its the Giants! but keep in mind NYG is coming off a bye after beating Philadelphia, and Oakland just lost (very badly) to those same Eagles. A Raiders pass-D just whipped for seven TDs by Nick Foles should be a get-well card for Eli Manning, and Oakies have lost seven consecutive road games and 10 of past 11.
BILLS (3-6) AT STEELERS (2-6)
Line: PIT by 3
Cotes pick: PIT 24-20
TV: 1 p.m., CBS
Buffalo exalts over the expected return from injury of QB EJ Manuel. mainly because Jeff Tuel makes anybody else seem like Joe Montana. Also think Williams ground game could be good matchup vs. Pitts run-D. But Im stubborn. Still have trust in Ben Roethlisberger at home.
BENGALS (6-3) AT RAVENS (3-5)
Line: CIN by 1 1/2
Cotes pick: BAL 19-17
TV: 1 p.m., CBS (airing in South Florida)
Heres an intriguing matchup. Reeling, defending-champion Crows trying to avoid first four-game losing streak since 2007, and Bengals trying to assert that THEY own the division now. Should be an emotional game. Cincys injury-loss of DT Geno Atkins will open up running room for struggling Ray Rice. Lets see how much pride champs have left. Upset!
PANTHERS (5-3) AT 49ERS (6-2)
Line: SF by 6
Cotes pick: SF 24-16
TV: 4:05 p.m., FOX
Game of the Week finalist, for sure, with 49ers on five-game win streak (by a combined 174-61 margin) and Panthers on four-game run (by 130-48). Two teams en fuego, but Cats and Cam Newton have gotten fat on weak foes, their four-game streak against teams a combined 8-33. Uh oh. Here comes a quality opponent.
TEXANS (2-6) AT CARDINALS (4-4)
Line: ARI by 2 1/2
Cotes pick: HOU 23-16
TV: 4:25 p.m., CBS
Its a dice-rolling week. This is our fifth upset call (including Thursdays game), and it relies on our not quite trusting Zona as much as it does our waning belief in Houston. And, yes, I DO know Arian Foster (back) might not play. QB Case Keenum has looked really good, and Texans defense is too strong to keep losing. Wade Phillips fills in as HOU coach Gary Kubiak recovers from a mini-stroke. Win one for the Kubber?
BRONCOS (7-1) AT CHARGERS (4-4)
Line: DEN by 7
Cotes pick: DEN 34-31
TV: 4:25 p.m., CBS (airing in South Florida)
Another Game of the Week finalist, because Peyton Manning at Philip Rivers should be good for one of those Saturday Oregon Ducks/FSU scores. Jack Del Rio fills in for Denver as John Fox recovers from heart surgery. What is it with these coaches and their health issues? (Joe Philbins the guy who need a stress test right now!) Give Bolts a large upset shot here.
OFF THIS WEEK
BROWNS (4-5; next at Bengals): The reasonably competitive Earthtones beat Ravens last week but now prepare for an even tougher division test at Cincy, where Bengals are 4-0.
CHIEFS (9-0; next at Broncos): Seven of 18 teams to start 9-0 in Super Bowl era have won the championship, but KC could be put in its place in prime time at Denver. The 72 Dolphins should be smiling.
JETS (5-4; next at Bills): It pains me to say last weeks nice win over Saints kept Rex Ryan on playoff pace, and a big reason is kicker Nick Folk, who is 23 for 23 on field goals.
PATRIOTS (7-2; next at Panthers): Pats just rang up 50 on Pittsburgh and Tom Brady finally had a big game. Looks like Team Hoodie is ready for the Monday night stage that awaits.