Rousseff has said that she needs a public apology from the Obama administration.
So far she hasn’t gotten it. The White House statement did say, however, that Obama “understands and regrets the concerns that disclosures of alleged U.S. intelligence activities have generated in Brazil....”
U.S. officials said such an apology is unlikely, especially before an inquiry into NSA procedures is completed, because it makes the president subject to domestic criticism that he is relinquishing U.S. authority to collect intelligence.
But Barbosa said for the state visit to be rescheduled, “some sort of satisfaction will have to be given to President Rousseff. The problem today is a question of trust and that will have to be restored.
“Everyone knows that everyone spies on everyone,’’ he said. The problem, Barbosa said, is that such activities aren’t generally aired in such a public manner.
Meanwhile, there has been speculation that given the sluggishness of the Brazilian economy, the summer protests that took aim at everything from government corruption to shortcomings in public transportation, healthcare and education, postponing the trip might have been politically motivated.
“There was a political component but I don’t think it was the prevailing factor,’’ said Barbosa. “I think she was genuinely upset.’’
Any political mileage that Rousseff got out of the postponement is a “bonus,’’ not a motivation,’’ said Sotero. “I don’t think playing an anti-American card helps much with the elections.’’
In general, he said, anti-Americanism doesn’t play that well in Brazil, especially among the emerging middleclass.
And Rousseff is nothing if not a pragmatist. “She knows a closer relationship with the United States is fundamental for Brazil to improve its global competiveness,’’ said Sotero.
Although China has supplanted the United States as Brazil’s main trading partner, the business-to-business relationships between the two countries remain strong.
Rousseff is very much focused on Brazil taking what she sees as its rightful place as an emerging global power and she doesn’t like to be pushed around.
When she welcomed President Obama to Brazil during his 2011 visit, she emphasized that any true alliance between the two countries needed to be “amongst equals.”
The Snowden revelations have set the U.S.-Brazil relationship back, said Eric Farnsworth, vice president of the Council of the Americas and Americas Society.
“It was a significant slap in the face of the United States,’’ he said. But “it doesn’t mean the relationship is blown up. It does mean the momentum for a better relationship has dissipated.’’
Despite the temporary diplomatic stickiness the postponement is causing, Barbosa said, “the governments are treating this as business as usual.’’
So-called dialogues on issues of mutual concern, such as strategic energy, economic and financial matters, investment and defense cooperation, are continuing.
And other analysts also said they expect the business relationships between the two countries will continue as usual — good news for South Florida whose largest trading partner is Brazil
“Business between the two countries evolves despite government participation — not because of it and that’s a sad thing,’’ Joao Augusto de Castro Neves, a senior analyst at the Eurasia Group, said Friday during an Inter-American Dialogue seminar analyzing U.S.-Brazil relations.
Brazil, he said, still isn’t quite sure what it wants from its relationship with the United States.
But Rousseff and Obama may get another crack at diplomacy this week on the sidelines of the 68th session of the United Nations General Assembly. Rousseff is scheduled to be the opening speaker when the U.N. convenes Tuesday and her remarks may include a critique of U.S. intelligence-gathering techniques. President Obama, who is expected to focus on the American approach to the Middle East, is next up on the podium.