Gay marriage will be imposed on Florida by the U.S. Supreme Court before state voters, judges or lawmakers would repeal a 2008 constitutional ban, predicts ACLU of Florida Executive Director Howard Simon.
I dont want to build up any false expectations that it would be good to run back to the ballot right now, or that it would be good to think that we should file a lawsuit any time until the hearts and minds change more and the environment changes a bit more, said Simon, whose organization has joined with three major gay-rights groups to coordinate strategy for securing gay marriage in Florida.
On June 26, the U.S. Supreme Court overturned part of the 1996 Defense of Marriage Act, ruling that the federal government must recognize legal marriages of same-sex couples performed internationally, in 13 states and the District of Columbia. The high court did not consider the portion of DOMA that allows states to not recognize same-sex marriages.
Thirty-seven states, including Florida, have laws banning gay marriage, creating legal chaos for married gay couples, Simon said Monday on Justice With a Snap, an Internet radio program.
Legal experts and community activists at the national and state level are exploring all the options for challenging those bans legislative action, ballot referendums and legal challenges, according to a statement released by Equality Florida, the states leading gay-rights group, the ACLU of Florida, the National Center for Lesbian Rights and Lambda Legal.
Its unlikely that Floridas 2008 Amendment 2, which defined marriage as between a man and woman, could be overturned at this time in the state, said Nadine Smith, Equality Floridas executive director.
Instead, Equality Florida is focusing on an educational campaign called Get Engaged. There are two places that were really investing, Smith said on the radio broadcast. When you look at the places where marriage equality has come, through the legislature or through the ballot, its preceded by a deep investment of a public education campaign that humanizes these issues.
In June, lesbian political strategist Vanessa Brito of Miami began a petition drive hoping to put the gay-marriage issue on the 2014 Florida ballot.
In three weeks, we collected nearly 40,000 signatures, Brito said Tuesday, adding that if polling in January shows the measure cant pass in November 2014, she would hold her petitions two more years.
Recent polling in Florida shows about 54 percent of voters now support gay marriage. It would take 60 percent plus one vote to repeal the gay marriage ban.
Simon and Smith believe thats currently not possible.
People have to be realistic, Simon said. We have a high hurdle to jump over in Florida, which is the 60 percent rule.
The ACLU and other groups believe that Florida will get full gay-marriage equality only when the rest of the U.S. gets it.
The ACLU is working now to secure the equal right to marry nationwide by following up our U.S. Supreme Court victory in the Windsor case with lawsuits in Pennsylvania, Virginia and North Carolina, Simon told the Miami Herald.
An extensive analysis of the national landscape makes it clear that, given the political environment in Florida, including the decidedly unprogressive state of our federal appeals court, we are more likely to secure the right to marry for Floridas same-sex couples from victories in other states than by initiating either a lawsuit or a referendum in Florida.