That leverage, which flows from the U.S. military’s relationship with Egypt’s armed forces, is considerable to maintaining the generals’ prestige and weapons inventory. But it works both ways. America needs Egypt’s military and intelligence services too – for countering terrorism, keeping Egypt-Israel relations stable, and containing Iran.
As for the Muslim Brotherhood, regardless of whether the Obama administration was naive to believe that the responsibilities of governing might transform an inherently anti-democratic movement into something else, how could it walk away from a fair, free, and historic election that produced the first civilian president in Egypt’s history? Doing so would have put the administration in the untenable position of arguing for democracy only if the “right” party wins. And it’s hard to see what Washington could have done to change Morsi’s approach to the presidency once he took office. Joining the Brotherhood isn’t like joining a health club — it’s a way of life with an all-encompassing worldview.
The whole point of the Arab Awakening was that it decentralized politics — stripping it from autocrats so that a variety of actors could participate. In so doing, it legitimized them. And, however turbulent, politics in Egypt are now more credible than at any time since the early 20th century. Public opinion, smaller parties like the Salafi al-Nour Party, and the Muslim Brotherhood now matter. The last thing America should do is infantilize the Egyptians and others by pretending it knows what’s best and believing it can fix Egypt’s admittedly broken house. Only Egyptians can make those repairs.
Even if the United States had more sway over outcomes in Egypt than it actually does, neatly reconciling American values and interests would be nearly impossible. Egyptians — the elite and the broader public — can’t reconcile their own conflicting ideologies with the need for effective governance, basic security, and prosperity. Why does America think it can? Besides, at the moment, Egypt lacks the three basic elements around which democratic polities are built: leaders who prioritize national interests above sectarian interests; legitimate, accountable, and authoritative institutions; and a mechanism for resolving disputes without violence.
The fact is that U.S. interests — on terrorism, Israel, Iran, and the like — require a close relationship with the generals. And though standing up for democracy is one of America’s interests, there is very little it can do now to force the Egyptians to produce one. The last thing the United States needs is to try to force a transition to civilian rule that’s again botched and mismanaged. And how serious about democratization is America really? In a real democracy, the military doesn’t trump civilian authority, make all national security decisions, and run its own economy with an offline budget. Yet the Egyptian military does all three.
Right now, we don’t need a major reassessment of U.S. policy toward Egypt or a lot of drama involving threats to cut off aid. And we don’t need to turn the Egyptian story into some kind of morality play that pits the forces of darkness (the Islamists) against the forces of light (the military and public). U.S. policy toward Egypt isn’t constrained by lack of courage or imagination. It’s limited by Egyptian realities and American interests.
The United States needs to pay more attention to those realities, identify a set of principles of democratic governance, and articulate them clearly and consistently, both publicly and privately at the highest levels. Hold the generals to those standards, but give the process time to congeal — and if it doesn’t and the military is the primary reason, then ratchet up the pressure. But beating up the Obama administration (or ourselves) for that matter, believing that Egypt was Washington’s to lose or that America is a central actor in Egypt’s internal drama, won’t get us anywhere.
Aaron David Miller, FP columnist, is vice president for new initiatives and a scholar at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. His forthcoming book is titled “Can America Have Another Great President?”

















My Yahoo