But the Dolphins have not produced a study of the current project to show it will create more than 4,000 local jobs. Instead, the team is using cocktail napkin estimates here: If a $225 million project would create 3,740 jobs, then a $350 million project would create at least 4,000, they say.
"It’s a conservative estimate of jobs that this will create," Jotkoff said.
These 4,000 jobs are associated with the 25-month construction project. Jotkoff said some of the jobs will continue beyond the 25 months but he had no details as to how many.
We sent the Dolphins’ jobs claim and a summary of the 2010 study to multiple economists, including some who specialize in the business of sports. They raised several caveats about the job growth figures. One noted the study was paid for by the team, so it wasn’t an independent analysis.
"The problem is that these jobs have to be financed," said Smith College economics professor Andrew Zimbalist. "Would it create jobs if the county hired 1,000 workers to dig a big hole and then a 1,000 more to fill it up? If so, then no city would ever have any unemployment."
(Zimbalist is a consultant for Major League Baseball but told PolitiFact he does not consult for the NFL.)
The Dolphins based the 4,000 “new local jobs” number on a 2010 study of a $225 million project that concluded 3,740 jobs in Miami-Dade and Broward. They haven’t shown any study of the current project to support their claim that it will create more than 4,000 local jobs. Instead, they tacked on an extra 260 jobs to the new $350 million project and say that’s conservative.
The key omission here is that these are jobs associated with the 25-month stadium renovation project and include temporary positions. The Dolphins say that some jobs would continue, but they have provided no details as to how many of those 4,000 jobs would extend beyond the construction phase.
To get those jobs, the team would receive $379 million from the state and county over about three decades, and eventually pay back about $159 million. As to whether the jobs will be local, the team has set a goal to hire the vast majority of the workers from Miami-Dade County but there is no financial penalty if they fail to do so. We rate this claim Half True.
Miami Herald reporters Patricia Mazzei and Doug Hanks contributed to this report.