Maduro’s power, on the other hand, derives almost solely from Chávez’s endorsement, wrote Risa Grais-Targow, with The Eurasia Group.
In a sense, Maduro helped spark the legitimacy crisis. During his victory speech Sunday, he agreed to a ballot-by-ballot recount, saying, “Let the boxes speak and let them tell the truth.”
By the next day, he preferred those boxes to remain mute. Venezuela uses electronic voting machines that produce an auditable paper trail, and the National Electoral Council, or CNE, said 54 percent of the vote had been reviewed.
Maduro said those measures should suffice, and many international election observers, and allies, such as China, Russia and Colombia, have agreed.
But other nations are on the fence. The United States will not be sending a delegation to Friday’s swearing-in and has said it will await the audit petition before recognizing Maduro.
Capriles said his camp detected more than 3,200 irregularities and campaign violations that could have changed the outcome. Tensions rose when he urged followers to rally around CNE offices to press his demands. The protests left eight dead, and Maduro blamed Capriles for the bloodshed. He also banned a march in Caracas planned for Wednesday, saying the opposition wanted to fill the city with bodies and bloodshed.
Capriles canceled the march but has asked followers to bang pots and pans — a traditional cacerolazo protest — during Maduro’s swearing-in.
Brian Gonzalez, a 22-year-old travel agent, was sitting on a park bench in the Sabana Grande commercial district, as tattered campaign posters and flyers littered the ground. He said Maduro’s heavy-handed rhetoric only makes him look desperate.
“I don’t know if there was fraud or not, but it doesn’t look good. It looks like he has something to hide,” he said. “Now he’s going to be president through 2019 and we don’t even have the right to question it.”
On Wednesday, Maduro said he would agree to a full audit if the CNE calls for one. Late Thursday night, the CNE said it would audit the 46 percent of the vots that weren’t already audited. But the head of the Supreme Court has said a vote-by-vote recount is not in the cards. And some doubt Maduro can make good on his threats to attack the opposition.
“The government is in such a weak position that any radical action, such as imprisoning Capriles or other opposition leaders, could undermine its sustainability,” analysts at Barclays Bank wrote. “Therefore, we do not expect it to move in that direction.”
But Maduro’s tightest straitjacket may be Chávez, who died March 5, after an 18-month battle with cancer. Maduro has vowed to carry on his legacy. He refers to himself as Chávez’s “son” and said he would install his office beside Chávez’s hilltop tomb to better channel his wishes.
Ramón González, a 68-year-old retiree, said he voted for Maduro because Chávez told him to. And he expects Maduro to maintain all of Chávez’s policies.
“If he starts wavering, the people will know what to do,” González said. “Maduro’s there because Chávez wanted him to be there.”























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