What’s the probability of sea rise?


Re the March 10 article, Deep trouble: Presumably on the basis of Biscayne Bay Waterkeeper’s hired science guns, just another foot of sea-rise, possible within 20 years, could worsen high-tide street flooding in Miami Beach. Yes, a foot of sea-rise is certainly possible within 20 years. The question is how probable is it, 99, 50, 1, or 0.1 percent? Obviously this is the real question, but the story leaves it unaddressed. To be sure, we’re told that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has “high confidence” of a rise between eight inches and 6.6 feet by 2100. But is that high confidence backed by a genuine probability estimate? And, isn’t the range of the rise absurdly wide? Imagine using this sort of reasoning in making personal, business or medical decisions.

Panayot Butchvarov, Fort Lauderdale

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