Miami-Dade

Environment

Deep trouble: How sea-rise could cause havoc in South Florida

 

A look ahead

South Florida would see serious impacts under a projection of accelerating sea-level rise released in December by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The agency has “high confidence” of a rise between eight inches and 6.6 feet by 2100. The upper range, taking into account faster polar ice melt, predicts impacts 20 to 30 years earlier than guidance issued in 2009 by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers for federal civil works projects.

1 foot rise 2031 to 2042

2 foot rise 2048 to 2066

3 foot rise 2063 to 2085

4 foot rise 2074 to 2100

5 foot rise 2084 to 2112

6 foot rise 2094 to 2112

NOAA interactive map


The scientists

Biscayne Bay Waterkeeper’s hired science guns, each paid $5,000, boast impressive credentials on climate change and hazard mitigation:

Harold Wanless, a University of Miami geology professor, has monitored sea-level rise in South Florida for 40 years and advised Miami-Dade, regional planners and water managers and the Army Corps of Engineers.

Brian Soden, a UM professor of atmospheric sciences, has performed analysis for a string of federal agencies, including NASA.

Leonard Berry, who directs Florida Atlantic University’s Center for Environmental Studies, was a member of the four-county compact’s science group and commissioned by the state to study climate impacts on roads.

Ricardo Alvarez, an FAU research associate, is a veteran consultant on construction risk and hazard assessment.

Peter Harlem, a Florida International University researcher, specializes in using cutting-edge mapping technology to produce inundation projections.


cmorgan@MiamiHerald.com

Paul Schwiep, a Miami attorney who represents Waterkeeper, acknowledged EPA’s latitude was limited under a Clean Water Act primarily intended to prevent pollution. But he argues the agency also can invoke broader “public interest” authority.

Albert Slap, a Key Biscayne attorney also representing the group, said the county and EPA were ignoring their own initiatives encouraging climate “resilient” construction.

“They talk the talk,’’ he said, “but when they have to walk the walk and spend money on climate change, they deny it.’’

With the county already under orders from state regulators to phase out the practice of pumping partially treated waste off shore by 2027, they also argue that would sharply reduce the economic advantage of coastal plants. But Yoder said Miami-Dade intends to ask Florida lawmakers for leeway and has plans to convert Virginia Key to deep-well disposal underground if necessary.

Leonard Berry, director of FAU’s Center for Environmental Studies, said the plan lacked enough information to make an informed choice between renovation or building inland.

“We need that cost benefit analysis to know for sure,’’ he said. “That’s the issue.”

The scientists aren’t alone in their concerns. In a letter last week, Nathanial Reed, vice chairman of the Everglades Foundation and an influential former state and federal environmental official, urged the EPA not to rubber stamp a “defective plan.’’ Key Biscayne Mayor Frank Kaplan, in a letter last month to County Mayor Carlos Gimenez, asked for a “more thoughtful long-term engineering, environmental and economic evaluation” of plans to rehab Virginia Key.

“We’re not demanding they move it. We didn’t even ask that,’’ Kaplan said. “We just want answers.’’

Miami Herald Staff Writer Charles Rabin contributed to this story.


Interactive: Explore map that shows sea-level rise projections in Miami-Dade



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