Should win: Riva.

Will win: Riva.

Best Supporting Actor

Here’s where things start getting tricky. All five of this year’s nominees have already won an Oscar, and all five delivered strong performances, so it will come down to Academy tastes. Robert De Niro has been campaigning hard for his performance as a gambling-obsessed father in Silver Linings Playbook. In Lincoln, Tommy Lee Jones steals every scene he’s in (and injects humor and energy into the picture) as Congressman Thaddeus Stevens, who had the president’s back in his fight for abolition. Django Unchained’s Christoph Waltz is as deliciously entertaining as he was in Inglourious Basterds, but voters may deem it’s too soon to give the Austrian actor another award. Alan Arkin brings his funny, squawking energy to bear in Argo as a Hollywood executive, and Philip Seymour Hoffman is commanding as the leader of a growing cult in the fatally flawed The Master. They’re all worthy, but I’d love to see De Niro take it — he hasn’t seemed this engaged and present in a movie in decades.

Should win: De Niro.

Will win: Jones.

Best Supporting Actress

Anne Hathaway appears in Les Misérables for just 20 minutes, but even if you didn’t care for the movie, you can’t deny her character is a heartbreaker. She has been the front-runner since the film started screening for critics, and she enters tonight’s race with a wide lead over her competition. Helen Hunt took huge chances in The Sessions as a sex therapist treating a paralyzed man, but the movie didn’t catch on with audiences or voters. Jacki Weaver was the secret weapon of Silver Linings Playbook — the sweet, optimistic mother who held together her nutty family — and compared to her turn as a murderous granny in the Australian thriller Animal Kingdom, she obviously has great range. She deserves to win, but there’s no stopping the Hathaway juggernaut.

Should win: Weaver.

Will win: Hathaway.

Best Director

Argo and director Affleck have won virtually every award in existence in the weeks leading up to tonight. He’d be a slam-dunk to win this one, too. But in one of those baffling decisions the Academy often makes, Affleck wasn’t nominated, which means this one is up for grabs. I’d love to see Zeitlin win — Beasts of the Southern Wild is a triumph of bold, dreamy filmmaking that’s unlike any movie you’ve seen — but he’ll have to settle for the recognition of being nominated. Haneke could upset and steal the prize if enough Academy members loved Amour: his careful direction of that film is a lot harder to pull off than it looks. But I think this comes down to the two biggest names on the list: Life of Pi’s Ang Lee and Lincoln’s Spielberg. Life of Pi was an astonishing technical feat, but the movie hasn’t generated much passion. Spielberg, meanwhile, stepped out of his comfort zone to direct what was essentially a chamber drama, and he did it so well the movie has grossed more than $200 million worldwide. Also, he hasn’t won this category since 1998’s Saving Private Ryan, and although rumor is that Oscar voters resent his success, there’s no denying the craftsmanship of what could have turned out to be a dry history lesson.

Should win: Haneke.

Will win: Spielberg.

Best Picture

No suspense here: Argo takes it, unless we’re in for another Brokeback Mountain/Crash-style upset. In recent years, this Oscar has gone to the most-liked film of the year, not necessarily the best one (think The Artist or The King’s Speech). Argo may not be a monumental achievement, but it is a perfectly serviceable thriller that also suggests Hollywood can play an active role in real-world crises. Movies can save lives! And Affleck was one of the producers on the film, so he’ll have his chance to take the stage and have his say. Wouldn’t it be great, though, if the Academy went out of the box and picked the transporting Beasts of the Southern Wild? One can dream.

Should win: Beasts of the Southern Wild.

Will win: Argo.