ECONOMIC TIME MACHINE

Real estate recovery ahead...in 2019

 

South Florida home values increased about 1 percent a month in 2012. Only seven more years to go before another record.

dhanks@MiamiHerald.com

For homeowners in South Florida, 2012 was the best year for housing since the housing crash began in the first part of 2006.

And if the momentum continues, the damage wrought by the housing crash should be erased by early 2019.

At least, that’s what the latest Case-Shiller numbers tell us. On average in 2012, the South Florida version of the closely watched real estate index has increased 1 percent each month through October. If that trajectory continues, it would be February 2019 before the Case-Shiller South Florida index returns to the past peak set in May 2006. Values are off 48 percent since then, slightly better than the trough of a 51-percent drop set in November 2011.

The chances are slim for a straight-line recovery as mapped on the chart. But the trajectory gives some perspective to the string of encouraging numbers coming out of South Florida’s real estate market. Should the growth continue at the current pace, the legacy from the burst bubble will have lasted 13 years.

The Miami Herald’s Economic Time Machine blog tracks South Florida’s recovery from the Great Recession. By putting the latest economic statistics in a historical context, the ETM tries to provide perspective on both the damage done and the pace of the recovery. Visit miamiherald.com/economic-time-machine for updates.

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