Bounced back with a solid week led by a bulls-eye on our Upset of the Week call with Redskins over Giants (Aawwk!), another outright upset hit with Chiefs over Panthers, and a trio of dogs-with-points in Seahawks, Rams and Eagles. Also missed an exact score by one point in Browns win. The three ties against the spread were a push by Packers and two games that were off the board when I picked em. Still fighting hard to catch .500 ATS, a daunting climb with only four weeks left. [Thursday pick was Broncos (-10 1/2) over Raiders, 34-16].
Line: SF by 10.
Cotes pick: SF 23-14.
TV: 4:05 p.m., CBS (airing in South Florida).
NFL Week 14 finds the Dolphins making this trip for the first time since 2004. I have a feeling the result will make them wish they could have put it off another eight years. The Niners are home, angry after a loss and presenting to Miami the stingiest defense in the league and a mighty sack attack at that. Im no genius, but this does not appear to be the recipe for Ryan Tannehill and a struggling offense to whip up a lot of points. Sacks leader Aldon Smith vs. the void left by Jake Longs injury could visit some chaos upon the rookie Tannehill. Playoff-bound 49ers can clinch a postseason ticket by winning, but only if five other results this week all fall right. Dolphins need to run the table with four consecutive wins plus luck, or a miracle. The best hope for an upset is that young QB Colin Tats Kaepernick makes Jim Harbaugh wish hed never rolled the dice by quitting on safe-and-sound Alex Smith.
Line: NE by 3 1/2.
Cotes pick: NE 31-27.
TV: 8:30 p.m. Monday, ESPN.
Game of the Week? No competition. The GOTW committee took the week off and went to Vegas. This feels more like the Game of the Year, a very likely AFC Championship Game preview. The Texans and Pats, in fact, are co-Super Bowl favorites at 9-2 odds heading in, meaning the winner here will be the clear fave moving forward. Both already have clinched a playoff spot but each guns for the No.1 seed or at least a first-round bye. A Houston upset would not surprise more than a little bit, but I simply do not pick against New England at home in December. I also do not pick against the Pats on the Monday night stage, where they are on a 10-1 run with an average victory margin of 20 points. Two great teams, one great game. Lets go!
Line: CHI by 3.
Cotes pick: MIN 24-21.
TV: 1 p.m., Fox.
AAAWWWK! intones the Upset Bird, merrily. Adrian Petersaaawwwk! Bears have won six in a row in this division rivalry including 28-10 just a couple of minutes ago, on Nov. 25. Hey, thats why they call it an upset! Vikes have become a pretty solid home team (5-1), and a very hot Adrian Peterson is facing a Chitown run D that hasnt been special lately. And now missing Brian Urlacher. Minny will miss injured Percy Harvin, but not as much as Bears miss Urlacher vs. A.P.