Greg Cote

NFL WEEK 10

Greg Cote’s Week 10 NFL picks

 

gcote@MiamiHerald.com

I hate to brag. Wait. Got nabbed by Fact Checkers. I love to brag, it’s just that I get so little chance! Last week’s 13-1 record (.929) was my best week in 22 years on The Friday Page. Only Doug Martin’s craziness for the Bucs at Oakland prevented my perfection. Our buoyant 10-4 against the spread was much needed as well. Three outright upset calls led our preening parade: Steelers over Giants (“Aawwk!”), Panthers over Redskins and Colts over Dolphins. “Why can’t I do this all the time?” I ask myself, rhetorically, dreaming. [Thursday pick: Colts (-3) over Jaguars, 24-16]

OverallPctVs. spreadPct.
Last week13-1.92910-4.714
Season84-48.63656-70-6.447
Final 2011159-97.621127-105-24.547

TITANS (3-6) at DOLPHINS (4-4)

Line: MIA by 6.

Cote’s pick: MIA 30-17.

TV: 1 p.m., CBS (airing in South Florida).

Does the game being in South Florida mean it’ll be early Wednesday before all of the points are counted and a winner is finally declared? Can’t recall when Miami was last favored by as much as it is this week. It is largely because the Titans’ sink-like-the-Titanic defense is on pace to allow 547 points and break the durable NFL season record of 533 set by the 1981 Baltimore Colts. Owner Bud Adams, 89, called last week’s 51-20 loss to Chicago his franchise’s most disappointing home defeat in his 50-year ownership dating to the Oilers days, saying his team was “grossly out-coached and outplayed.” In other words, Dolphins, y’all had BETTER not lose this one! Miami simply does not have the margin of error in the playoff chase to afford a stumble here. Titans QB Jake Locker returns after five games out injured, but that won’t matter much if MIA’s stout run defense limits Chris Johnson and extends to a league-best 23 games its streak of not allowing a 100-yard rusher. As for that Titans’ D? It’s so bad that we might well expect fat stats from Ryan Tannehill and Reggie Bush.

TEXANS (7-1) at BEARS (7-1)

Line: CHI by 1.

Cote’s pick: CHI 20-17.

TV: 8:20 p.m., NBC (airing in South Florida).

If the average game is a bag o’ fast-food burgers, this one is the finest piece of Kobe beef at Prime 112. Talk about a match-up ready for the solitary night stage! The teams rank 1-2 in point differential and are a combined plus-24 on turnovers, with Bears on a six-game win streak and Texans 3-0 on the road. Game also features the two defensive player of the year frontrunners in HOU sackman J.J. Watt and Chitown havoc-wreaker Charles Tillman. Tillman thought he might miss this game because his wife was due but she’ll deliver Monday. Good thing. Otherwise the infant would have been named Least Popular Baby in Chicago. Give me that awesome Bears defense and the chilly home field in a game I’d pay to see.

FALCONS (8-0) at SAINTS (3-5)

Line: ATL by 2 1/2.

Cote’s pick: NO 31-28.

TV: 1 p.m., Fox.

“AAAWWWK!” bugles the Upset Bird. “Last unbeaten falls! Mercury Maawwk! ’72 Daawwk!” This might not be a huge upset by the point spread, but here is what makes it big: Atlanta is 29-0 when Matt Ryan has a 100 passer rating, and N’Awlins’ pass defense could only be worse if the starting cornerbacks were my wife and I. Seriously. What am I thinking? Well, ATL is the 15th team to reach 8-0 since 1978, and nine of the other 14 have reached the Super Bowl, but I’m still not sold on the Falcs as a superpower. They have fed on a soft schedule. So give me Drew Brees at home. Give me a Fleur de Lis squad on a 10-2 run in this division rivalry. (When the Saints are on defense, I’ll be the guy praying.) “Have a feeling Don Shula might have an interest in this result,” notes U-Bird. “Shoes ready to pop that bottle of champaaawwwk!”

Read more Greg Cote stories from the Miami Herald

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Miami Heat's LeBron James (6) tries to maintain possession while being defended by New York Knicks' Carmelo Anthony (7) during the first half of an NBA basketball game, Friday, Nov. 2, 2012, in New York. (AP Photo/Jason DeCrow)

    Greg Cote: Knicks would have been spicier matchup for Miami Heat

    Miami Heat players have been steadfastly neutral in claiming no preference as they waited for Indiana and New York to figure out which would play the underdog in the NBA’s upcoming Eastern Conference finals. Confident champions do not deign to worry about who’s next; they leave the worrying to opponents. The lion who runs the jungle does not much care if he is feasting on zebra or antelope, after all.

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Miami Heat's Dwyane Wade, dunks over Bulls' Joakim Noah # 13 and Nate Robinson # 2, with two minutes left in the fourth quarter of the Miami Heat vs Chicago Bulls, NBA  Eastern Conference playoffs round 2, game 5 at AmericanAirlines Arena in Miami on Wednesday, May 15, 2013.

    IN MY OPINION

    Greg Cote: Dwyane Wade’s heroics help Miami Heat in comeback

    Welcome back, Dwyane Wade.

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MIami Heat's Dwyane Wade sits on the bench in the second quarter holding his leg as they play the Chicago Bulls in Round 2, Game 4, of the NBA Playoffs at the United Center in Chicago, Illinois, May 13, 2013.

    IN MY OPINION

    Greg Cote: Miami Heat’s playoff health tied to Dwyane Wade

    Most of the unusually low numbers from this game should delight Heat fans. Those numbers stunk up this city Monday night and all but required the Bulls arena to be immediately fumigated following this NBA playoff series Game 4 here. Those numbers were Chicago’s meager 65 points scored on abysmal 25.7 percent shooting — both owing largely to a Miami defense that is that good, yes.

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