Our season records overall and against the spread are turning slowly in the right direction, and last week we had a couple of nice outright upset calls with Falcons winning at Philly (Aawwk!) and Raiders prevailing in KC. This is the prognosticating equivalent of a politician seeing an uptick in the national poll numbers and looking good in a couple of key swing states. (Ive been watching waaay too much MSNBC.) Still shaky in my home state, though; Im 3-4 on Dolphins games. Must carry Florida! [Thursday pick: Chargers (-8 1/2) over Chiefs, 24-19].
Line: MIA by 2 1/2.
Cotes pick: IND 21-20.
TV: 1 p.m., CBS (airing in South Florida).
It is November, Week 9 in the NFL, Thanksgiving almost close enough to smell the bird, and the Dolphins are playing an important game with bearing on the AFC playoff race. I call that progress. Heck it might be closer to miraculous considering the team was winless a year ago today. The thing is, Indy is much better, too, driven by rookie Andrew Luck and believing in itself just as much. What odds you could have gotten in July if youd bet that both of these teams would be over .500 and winners of five consecutive games between them entering this one. In fact if Ryan Tannehill plays Sunday hes questionable with a bruised knee he and Luck will be the first rookie QBs since the 1970 merger to meet in the regular season with at least three wins each. Impressive. Now the good news/bad news. The bad news: I hunch a Colts win in a slight upset. The good news: Im only 3-4 picking Miami games this year so Dolfans should be delighted, perhaps. It isnt so much the Tannehill question that has meaning leaning Indy, because backup Matt Moore is capable. It is more that Luck and Reggie Wayne are a mighty combo right now, sacker Dwight Freeney could finally be back, and Nags are 3-1 at home. The betting line doesnt so much flatter Miami as disrespect Indy.
Line: NYG by 3 1/2.
Cotes pick: PIT 27-24.
TV: 4:25 p.m., CBS (airing in South Florida).
AAWWWWK! bellows the Upset Bird. Pittsbaawwk! Its a 2-for-1 special, a rare Game of the Week/Upset of the Week combo platter. Part of the intrigue is Ben Roethlisberger vs. Eli Manning from the draft class of 2004. This marks the first time that multiple Super Bowl-winning QBs from different conferences have met in a regular-season game since Joe Montana and Jim Plunkett in 1985. Pitts 1-3 road mark concerns me, but I still like Big Ben vs. Biggies secondary more than I like Eli against Steelers air-D. I also like this arcane stat: NYG is 1-7 in Game 9s under Tom Coughlin. A very fine trend to have unearthed, notes U-Bird, pausing to projectile-vomit a fluorescent gorge of purloined Halloween candy. I also like the lift Jonathan Dwaawwk, sorry, Dwyer has given the Steelers offense. Jonathaawwk Dwaaawwwk!
Line: DET by 3 1/2.
Cotes pick: DET 28-17.
TV: 1 p.m., Fox.
When presented a weak crop of lousy matchups, a Jacksonville home game is generally a safe default pick. The Jags played Green Bay surprisingly tough last week but havent stopped being a moribund 1-6 squad without its best player in injured Maurice Jones-Drew. (Bonus fact: Matthew Stafford here will surpass 10,000 career passing yards in his 37th game. Only Kurt Warner, in 36 games, has done it faster.) Detroit isnt much of a road team and so the upset factor here is medium-high, but error-prone Jax finds ways to lose.
BRONCOS (4-3) at BENGALS (3-4)
Line: DEN by 3 1/2.
Cotes pick: DEN 31-20.
TV: 1 p.m., CBS.
Denver has won 14 of the past 17 in this series, and that was before Peyton Manning started pitching for the Broncs Manning, who has at least 300 yards, three touchdown passes and 70 percent completions in four consecutive games. You would think Bengals, as home dogs coming off a bye, might be tempting, but Manning and slumping Andy Dalton are a stark contrast entering this one.
RAVENS (5-2) at BROWNS (2-6)
Line: BAL by 3 1/2.
Cotes pick: BAL 21-17.
TV: 1 p.m., CBS.
Baltimore has won nine games in a row over Cleveland in the Modell Bowl Series, and is 4-0 after byes under John Harbaugh. Dont see it easy, though. Earthtones have won two in a row at home, their defense can be tough, and Ravens only won by 23-16 in first meeting five week ago. After getting spanked by Houston, Crows must earn back the trust.
CARDINALS (4-4) at PACKERS (5-3)
Line: GB by 11.
Cotes pick: GB 30-16.
TV: 1 p.m., Fox.
Redbirds have lost four in a row and limp in off a short week after playing Monday. Pack has injury issues with Greg Jennings out and Jordy Nelson iffy. But I figure if Alax Smith can decimate the Zona pass-D with accuracy, so can Aaron Rodgers, even missing some pieces. The Cacti are getting a lot of points here, but this losing streak has shoved me off the bandwagon.
BEARS (6-1) at TITANS (3-5)
Line: CHI by 3 1/2.
Cotes pick: CHI 24-13.
TV: 1 p.m., Fox.
Chicagos defense has scored 41 of its 185 points. Who cares if Jay Cutler and the offense struggle; the Bears are at their best when Cutler is sitting. Tennessee happens to have won 10 of its past 12 home games vs. NFC teams, but Im not leaving this Chitown D when its this hot. Cant see Chris Johnson or Matt Hasselbeck getting much done.
PANTHERS (1-6) at REDSKINS (3-5)
Line: WAS by 3 1/2.
Cotes pick: CAR 28-27.
TV: 1 p.m., Fox.
Past two Heisman Trophy winners duel in Robert Griffin III vs. the man he replaced as NFL Wunderkind, Cam Newton. And I like Cams Cats in an upset. Carolina is due some luck, with five of its losses coming by a combined 18 points. And nothing about either team is worse than Washingtons pass defense, which is on pace to be the first ever to allow 5,000 season yards.
BILLS (3-4) at TEXANS (6-1)
Line: HOU by 10.
Cotes pick: HOU 31-16.
TV: 1 p.m., CBS.
Both teams are coming off byes; Bills may wish they had another one. Arian Foster isnt having a huge (for him) season so far, but that could change fast here against a Buffs run-D allowing an absurd 177 yards per game. Mario Williams face his old team, but his old team will leave smiling. Texans are best team in AFC maybe in NFL until they indicate otherwise.
VIKINGS (5-3) at SEAHAWKS (4-4)
Line: SEA by 5.
Cotes pick: SEA 20-17.
TV: 4:05 p.m., Fox (airing in South Florida).
NFLs top two rushers show some leg in Adrian Peterson and Marshawn Lynch, each hoping to carry his team over a tough loss last week. I like Lynch a little bit more against a Minny run D that has allowed a 100-yard rusher each of past three games. Seattle and Russell Wilson also are appreciably better at home. Bet-number still feels a trifle fat, though.
BUCCANEERS (3-4) at RAIDERS (3-4)
Line: OAK by 1 1/2.
Cotes pick: OAK 27-24.
TV: 4:05 p.m., Fox.
Here is the closest Week 9 has to a pick-em game. Tampa has won three in a row and scored at least 28 in each, but Bucs will really miss injured left tackle Carl Nicks, and Oakland is 5-0 at home in this occasional series. More than a venue pick, though, I think Carson Palmer could put up big numbers against a weak, depleted Bucs secondary.
COWBOYS (3-4) at FALCONS (7-0)
Line: ATL 4.
Cotes pick: ATL 27-24.
TV: 8:20 p.m. NBC (airing in South Florida).
Prime-time gets a good one Sunday, and an outright upset of the unbeaten Falcons would not surprise. Might have picked it, in fact, except that it looked like RB DeMarco Murray wouldnt play for Dallas, and with backup Felix Jones also hurting, thats a big chunk of offense missing. I still take the Birds with hesitation, and like Boys to keep it very close.
EAGLES (3-4) at SAINTS (2-5)
Line: NO 3.
Cotes pick: NO 37-31.
TV: 8:30 p.m. Monday, ESPN (airing in South Florida).
Two disappointing, desperate teams are a combined 5-9, each coming off a loss, but count on the Monday audience being entertained by a pointfest. NAwlins should be good for what ails Mike Vick; Saints defense is first since 1950 to allow 400-plus yards each of its first seven games. And you know Drew Brees will get his stats, no matter the calamity around him. Nothing but a low-scoring game would surprise me.
OFF THIS WEEK
49ERS (6-2; next vs. Rams): Four NFC teams stand apart and Niners are one of them in wake of Mondays rout of Arizona. San Frans plus-86 is best point differential in the conference.
JETS (3-5; next at Seahawks): NYJs 30-9 beat-down loss to Dolphins left Stinkin Jets in last place in the AFC East. Hey, that a has ring to it. Help me out, Fireman Ed. L-A-S-T, Last!
PATRIOTS (5-3; next vs. Bills): Three losses at midseason is a lot for New England by Belichick/Brady standards, but look across the AFC today and see that only Houston is unarguably better.
RAMS (3-5; next at 49ers): Loss to Patriots in London last week was third in row for St. Lou and the foe on deck suggests itll soon be four. Jeff Fishers genius card has temporarily been suspended.