Politics Wires

Poll: Obama's lead over Romney with Florida's Hispanic voters tightens

 

The Miami Herald

In addition to surveying registered voters only, the America’s Voice survey conducted by Latino Decisions used live callers instead of robo-polling technology.

However, a poll conducted last week for The Miami Herald/El Nuevo Herald and The Tampa Bay Times by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research showed Romney and Obama virtually tied among likely Hispanic voters in Florida. That survey used live callers, but it had such a small sample size of Hispanics that the error margin is large enough to render the exact head-to-head numbers statistically insignificant.

Still, the Herald/Times poll of all likely Florida voters showed an 8-point shift in Romney’s favor in a month, thanks largely to his strong debate performance against Obama. Hispanic voters shifted 11 points.

Non-Hispanic white voters favor Romney by double-digits, which is particularly troubling for Obama because they comprise more than two-thirds of the state’s electorate.

Despite the poor poll numbers, though, the Obama campaign insisted it’s doing well and said that polls of likely voters fail to adequately survey infrequent and young voters — keys to Obama’s victory in 2008. Election Day exit polls showed Obama won 57 percent of the Hispanic vote in Florida; John McCain garnered 42 percent.

But Republican pollsters say that number underestimated the sizable number of Hispanic Republicans who voted early by absentee ballot, particularly in Miami-Dade — the state’s largest county, where 72 percent of the GOP is Hispanic.

As the country’s largest battleground state, Florida’s Hispanics play an outsized role in picking the president.

“The Hispanic vote in Florida is powerful. We can decide elections,” said Sierra, the Cuban-American voter from Shenandoah, who noted the influx of candidates who pour through the state.

“Everyone comes here, says ‘ Viva Cuba libre,’ eats a croqueta, a guava pastry and drinks coffee.”

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