But George Bush isnt on the ballot. Rick Scott isnt. Yet.
Obama is. He promised hope and change, and a better economy. His healthcare program is unpopular in Florida. So he and Romney are viewed as near-equals over managing Medicare, the poll shows. It also shows that Democratic voters are far less likely to blame Obama for the shape of the economy, while Republicans are far more likely to do so. Independents are in the middle.
When it comes to immigration, Obamas campaign has been tougher on the undocumented than Bush was despite the conservative talking point that Obama has failed on immigration.
Obama also failed to make good on his promise to pass the DREAM Act.
My biggest failure is that we havent gotten comprehensive immigration reform done, the president said Thursday during a forum with Univision at the University of Miami.
He also seemed to backtrack on whether he could change Washington. And he ducked a question about whether the Benghazi consulate was ready for an attack.
The day before, Romney sat in the same seat with Univision, but might have played it smarter.
The Republican gave the show and its liberal-leaning hosts who were anything but easy on Obama 35 minutes instead of the hour Obama gave. Romney played out the clock at times and was largely able to coast through with a loud cheering section he brought along.
The crowd even jeered Univisions host, Jorge Ramos, for having the audacity to ask a tough question.
The next day, Democrats started to complain that the Romney campaign had rigged the system.
Its an interesting argument coming from those who support an Obama campaign that brags about its organizational ground game. But it got outplayed on the ground.
As the polls tighten, that sound from the left is called whining.
It was the same sound that conservatives made about news stories chronicling Romneys repeated stumbles from having angry old man Clint Eastwood arguing with an empty chair at the GOP convention to Romney initially botching his criticism of the presidents handling of the embassy and consulate attacks to Romney disparaging half the public as moochers.
None of that helped Romney. Arguably, it hurt him.
While explaining himself, Romney hasnt had the time or the inclination to adequately explain the specifics of his plans or why he feels theyre superior to Obamas.
But none of the above statistics help Obama, either. Arguably, they have hurt him. Floridians are hurting in this economy 51 percent say they are not better off than they were four years ago.
All of this the Romney gaffes plus the bad economy under Obama makes for a tight race.
You dont need a poll to tell you that.
Just call the unemployment-benefits hotline to find out. If you have the time.