Florida

2012 CAMPAIGN

Obama 48%-Romney 47% in hard-fought presidential race in Florida

 

The presidential race in Florida remains a tight contest, according to The Miami Herald/El Nuevo Herald/Tampa Bay Times poll.

mcaputo@MiamiHerald.com

Romney described them as “victims” who would vote for Obama and want handouts. He later said the remarks were “off the cuff” and “not elegantly stated.”

The incident came a week after Romney took a hit in a national poll for the way he criticized Obama’s handling of Middle East violence on Sept. 11.

But Florida voters seemed to take it all in stride.

“We had this swirl of coverage over the last couple of weeks, and it doesn’t seem to have made a real impact with average voters,” Coker said. “The talking class and the analysts and the inside-the-Beltway-bubble people all think this stuff is big and important. I guess the voters don’t think it’s all that much important.”

Here’s what they care about: the economy.

And on that point, they’re evenly split.

Asked who’s more trustworthy on the economy, they tied. Romney has made the economic tough times under the president central to his campaign.

“That probably is the one result in here that’s a bit worrisome if I were the Romney camp,” Coker said. “Romney’s got to build a margin on that economy question.”

About 45 percent of likely voters believe the economy in Florida is stable, while 32 percent say it’s improving. A fifth says it’s worsening.

More than two-thirds say Obama bears at least some blame for the shape of the economy; 31 percent say he’s not.

On the president’s overall job performance, voters are almost equally divided. A majority thinks the country’s on the wrong track.

Democrats and independents are more likely than not to believe the economy is improving. Only Republicans are more likely to believe it’s getting worse.

Women are far more likely than men to believe the economy is getting better and are more likely than men to support Obama. Men are more likely to believe the economy is worsening and back Romney in bigger numbers than they back Obama.

Obama’s biggest strength: African-Americans, who back him with more than 90 percent of the vote, and young voters (ages 18-34), who support the president by double digits.

Among young voters, Obama’s support has improved somewhat more than Romney’s since July. The president’s campaign has barnstormed colleges and talked up the need for making college more affordable, while noting Romney might cut federal support.

Seniors, however, seem to favor Romney more than Obama, and seniors are more likely to vote than younger people.

Non-Hispanic white voters also back Romney by a 15-point margin, the poll suggests. That’s significant in a state where they account for two-thirds of the registered voters and tend to cast ballots in disproportionately higher numbers than, say, Hispanic voters, who comprise 14 percent of the active voter rolls.

Obama leads Romney among Hispanic voters by 9 points. But, because of the relatively small sample size of Hispanic voters — two-thirds of whom were polled in Spanish — the lead could fluctuate. Other polls show Obama with about a 20-point edge among Hispanic voters.

Still, many pollsters — including Democrats — say that’s not enough to make up for Obama’s poor showing with non-Hispanic whites.

Obama’s lead among Hispanic voters is smaller in Florida than in other Hispanic-heavy battleground states because of the presence of Cuban-Americans. They tend to vote Republican and account for about 70 percent of the registered Republicans in Miami-Dade, the state’s largest county.

Read more Florida stories from the Miami Herald

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