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Fall brawl is all about these 10 battleground states

 

From now until Nov. 6, it’s all about Florida, Ohio and eight other deeply divided battlegrounds. Here’s how they stack up.

McClatchy News Service

Get ready for an all-out brawl in 10 too-close-to-call battleground states as President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney begin a two-month sprint to Election Day.

They will deluge those states with personal visits, stacks of direct mail, automated phone calls and an unprecedented barrage of TV ads.

They’ll probably all but ignore the rest of America.

Florida and Ohio may matter most. No Republican has won the presidency without winning Ohio, and Florida’s 29 electoral votes — more than 10 percent of the 270 needed to win — are the biggest swing state prize.

The candidates will be dueling for support from a relative handful of undecided voters. This intense dash to Nov. 6 could well be decided in a series of debates next month, including one Oct. 22 in Boca Raton. If Obama holds the states polls say are now firmly his, he’d have 221 electoral votes, including California’s 55 and New York’s 29. Romney is considered a safe bet so far for 191 electoral votes, notably Texas’ 38.

With dispatches from McClatchy newspapers around the country, here’s a state-by-state look:

FLORIDA (29 electoral votes)

With a history of tight elections and a population that resembles the nation’s, Florida is the ultimate battleground state.

Florida reflects the nation: the southeast of the state is akin to the Northeastern United States; Southwest Florida is tied to the Midwest, and North Florida is like the Deep South. Then there’s Miami-Dade, the state’s largest and most Hispanic county, which functions as a Latin American capital.

Romney and supporters have dumped an estimated $45 million on television ads in Florida just for the general election. Obama and his allies have spent about $25 million. The Republicans held their convention in the Tampa Bay area, the most hotly contested battleground region of the state.

Romney holds an edge in money, but Obama’s so-called “ground-game” organization of thousands of volunteers and nearly 100 field offices appears unmatched.

The two are essentially tied, with Obama narrowly ahead of Romney by an inside-the-error margin lead of about two percentage points, according to the averages of the latest reputable statewide polls. “The president can win without Florida,” said Orlando Mayor Buddy Dyer, a Democrat. “If he wins Florida, it’s a slam dunk.”

Marc Caputo The Miami Herald

OHIO (18 electoral votes)

Ohio loves its reputation as one of the most unpredictable of the bellwether states, and 2012 is no exception. Obama has visited the Buckeye State 27 times since taking office in 2009, including 11 this year. Romney has been to the state 13 times since last year.

Obama and Romney are locked in a statistical dead heat in Ohio. The Columbus Dispatch recently recorded its closest presidential poll in modern history, with Romney leading Obama by only 0.22 percentage points, a figure well within the survey’s margin of error.

As in other states, the economy is the dominant issue in Ohio, and voters appear evenly divided on whether Obama or Romney would provide better leadership on the issue.

Though Ohio is a Rust Belt state, it’s doing better on jobs compared with other parts of the country. The state’s July unemployment rate was 7.2 percent — lower than the nation’s 8.1 percent jobless rate.

William Douglas Washington Bureau

NORTH CAROLINA (15 electoral votes)

Republicans were so certain of carrying the Tar Heel State last time that South Carolina Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham boasted: “I’ll beat Michael Phelps in swimming before Barack Obama wins North Carolina.”

After Obama improbably carried North Carolina in 2008, Republicans are making no such boasts this time. This summer, the state has endured a $50 million advertising barrage, with Romney and his allies outspending Obama by more than two to one.

So far, the ad war has barely moved the polls, with most showing the race within the margin of error. But Democrats acknowledge they face an uphill task in a state with the fifth highest unemployment rate in the country.

Obama is counting on a massive grass-roots effort and a boost from the convention that concluded Thursday in Charlotte, and from an influx of new residents from more Democratic-leaning parts of the country.

Rob Christensen The News & Observer of Raleigh, N.C.

VIRGINIA (13 electoral votes)

Virginia was long regarded as a conservative Southern state. But in 2008, Obama became the first Democratic candidate to carry the commonwealth in 44 years after putting together the broadest state political organization in modern times.

Republicans are fighting hard to get the state back, and Virginia is now among the most volatile of the swing states.

Democrats have made inroads in northern Virginia, where the population has boomed in recent years, particularly with minorities and younger voters. Republicans have electoral strength in the Shenandoah Valley and rural south and southwestern Virginia.

The key battleground areas are the outer suburbs of Washington, including Prince William and Loudoun counties; Hampton Roads, the sprawling region in southeastern Virginia and home to a large number of veterans, college students and African-Americans; and suburban Richmond.

Anita Kumar Washington Bureau

NEVADA (6 electoral votes)

Four years after Obama won Nevada by more than 12 percentage points, this recession-weary state — perhaps more than any other — tests his argument that the economy has improved on his watch.

Foreclosures are rampant and the unemployment rate still hovers around 12 percent, highest in the nation. The Republican Party, outnumbered by more than 100,000 active voters in 2008, has reduced the Democratic Party’s advantage to fewer than 60,000 active voters this year.

Yet a strong following for Rep. Ron Paul of Texas, evident at the Republican National Convention, and before that at a disorderly state convention, has forced Romney to work around the state party.

The state’s growing Latino population and large Mormon population could factor heavily in the outcome, likely helping Obama and Romney, respectively. David Siders The Sacramento Bee

NEW HAMPSHIRE (4 electoral votes)

Obama won the state soundly in 2008. Romney, who has a summer home in the state and was governor of neighboring Massachusetts, is hoping for a hometown edge.

The Granite State’s major claim to political fame stems from its first-in-the-nation presidential primary, which provides every candidate with a roadmap of the state’s political landscape. But it’s also a tempting prize in the general election, with an electorate so closely divided that it’s almost always up for grabs.

Both campaigns made stops in New Hampshire on Friday, the first day after the conventions, underscoring the competitive nature of the race. Lesley Clark Washington Bureau

COLORADO (9 electoral votes)

Young voters and Latinos helped Obama win Colorado by nine percentage points in 2008, with rapidly changing demographics turning the once reliably-Republican state into a toss-up.

The state’s voters are nearly evenly split — about one-third each Republican, Democratic and unaffiliated.

Latino voters, who could make up 8 percent or more of the electorate this year, are likely to be critical to the outcome, as are suburban women. Obama did well with Latinos and women voters in 2008, said Kyle Saunders, a political science professor at Colorado State University.

But the unemployment rate remains above 8 percent, and Saunders said the sputtering economy may still hurt Obama.

David Sider The Sacramento Bee

IOWA (6 electoral votes)

Both candidates made treks to Iowa on Friday on the first day after the conventions, a testament to its outsized role in the election.

In between their personal visits, the fight is playing out on the state’s television screens. Since May 1, the Obama campaign purchased more than $12 million in ad time, according to figures compiled by The National Journal, enormous spending for the relatively small media markets in the state. The Romney campaign has spent less — $7.2 million — but outside groups affiliated with Republicans have added more than $10 million.

Obama carried Iowa easily in 2008. Farm interests and alternative fuels — read ethanol subsidies and wind energy — remain important issues for the state’s voters. Some of Iowa’s Democrats also have an aggressive anti-war posture that Obama was able to tap.

Romney, though, is relatively popular with the state’s social and fiscal conservatives, and he favors federal support for ethanol production.

Recent polls suggest the race is nearly a dead heat. Dave Helling The Kansas City Star

WISCONSIN (10 electoral votes)

A Democratic presidential candidate hasn’t lost Wisconsin since 1984, but the Badger State has seen a dramatic political shift.

Voters swept Republicans into power in 2010, sending Ron Johnson to the Senate to replace liberal Sen. Russ Feingold, and putting Scott Walker in the governor’s office. After Walker curbed union rights in a budget fight, voters sided with Walker again in a recall vote.

“There’s been a real shift in government — a clear swing in a Republican direction, and you don’t even need Paul Ryan on the ticket. But you add him to the ticket and you’ve got an extra dimension.” said Charles Franklin, director of the Marquette Law School Poll.

Romney got a bump in the state when he chose as his running mate the young Ryan, the congressman from Janesville and chairman of the House Budget Committee, pulling within three percentage points after trailing by five.

William Douglas Washington Bureau

MICHIGAN (16 electoral votes)

The state that usually serves as the bellwether for American blue-collar voting will be watched unusually closely this year.

Thought to be a Democratic stronghold, it’s in play partly because of Romney’s family ties and partly because it’s shown some Republican tendencies.

Michigan elected a conservative Republican governor, Rick Snyder, in 2010. Romney is a Michigan native, from a family still well-regarded in the Detroit area. His father was the state’s governor from 1963 to 1969.

Romney faces one big hurdle though: The auto industry is coming back, and Obama is taking credit for the resurgence. Though the bailout began under President George W. Bush, Obama kept it going strong and his campaign is offering constant reminders.The RealClearPolitics poll average Friday showed Obama up 2.4 percentage points.

David Lightman Washington Bureau

Email: dlightman@mcclatchydc.com; Twitter: @lightmandavid

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