Pena Nieto also owes his apparent victory to the television duopoly of TV Azteca and Televisa, which controls 95 percent of Mexico’s stations and has literally fabricated his popularity out of thin air. The Guardian’s recent reports of secret contracts between Pena Nieto and Mexican television companies for the purpose of promoting his image are only the tip of the iceberg. Upon arriving in office, the new president may seek to pay back this invaluable support through new laws and regulatory measures. Such a deal would also inevitably involve protection for the Pena Nieto administration from uncomfortable media oversight and accountability.

Some scholars argue that the return of the PRI will not put Mexico’s democracy at risk because the judicial and legislative branches have much greater independence from the executive branch today than they did 20 years ago. While it is true that these branches of government may be able to effectively hold back some authoritarian excesses on the part of the new president, Mexico needs more than just checks and balances. It urgently needs the executive branch to stop treading water and start taking firm steps toward the establishment of accountability and the rule of law. Unfortunately, no evidence suggests that Pena Nieto has the background, the personal convictions, or the political independence necessary to carry out such a challenging and important task.

Meanwhile, the leftist opposition in Mexico will continue to be strong. The PRD candidate, Andrs Manuel López Obrador, has defied almost all of the pre-election polls by coming within striking distance of Pena Nieto. López Obrador will most likely finish only five or six percentage points behind the apparent president-elect, with approximately 33 percent of the popular vote compared with approximately 38 percent for Pena Nieto. This would mean that López Obrador’s vote total would surpass the 15 million mark, earning him even more support than he received in 2006, when he came within 0.58 percent of winning the presidency.

The YoSoy132 student movement, which burst onto the scene two months ago to protest against Pena Nieto’s authoritarian inclinations and dealings with media companies, will also remain strong. Indeed, the arrival of Pena Nieto may well galvanize the youth to assume an even more important role in national politics. The enormous electoral support for López Obrador suggests that millions of people may be willing to take to the streets to accompany the youth in their demand to democratize and assure greater plurality in the media.

If Pena Nieto’s victory holds up, he will have won with the support of less than 40 percent of the voters and will almost certainly face a Congress controlled by the opposition. Mexico is therefore headed toward an historic standoff between the new dinosaurs in charge of the executive and the new institutions and movements that have accompanied the glacial progress of democracy south of the border.

It’s difficult to put much faith in Pena Nieto’s pledge on Sunday night to embrace a “new form of governing that responds to the demands of Mexico in the 21st century” rather than return “to the past.” The good news, though, is that Mexico’s emboldened political opposition just might keep this dinosaur true to his word.

John M. Ackerman is a professor at the Institute for Legal Research of the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM), editor-in-chief of the Mexican Law Review and a columnist for Proceso magazine and La Jornada newspaper.