The head of the U.S.-based Christian rights group China Aid Association said in an e-mail exchange that his information was based on a source with access to both governments. “There will likely be a decision soon” by Chinese officials, said Bob Fu, China Aid’s president.

Chen's video appeal to Premier Wen Jiabo

Clinton is scheduled to attend the U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue on Thursday and Friday, a summit that’s meant to promote cooperation from agencies across both governments. Underlining the sensitivity of the situation with Chen, Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Campbell, the top American diplomat for East Asia, made an unannounced trip to China’s capital over the weekend. His presence was made public only after the Associated Press managed to get his photograph Sunday in a Beijing hotel.

It wasn’t clear, though, what the way forward for Chen might be. His wife, daughter and mother are thought to be still in their home village in China’s eastern Shandong province. When a high-profile dissident took refuge with U.S. diplomats in Beijing in 1989, after the brutal crackdown on student protests at Tiananmen Square, he and his wife lived at the embassy for more than a year before they were able to leave China.

Chen, however, reportedly has said he doesn’t want to leave the country; instead, he’s looking for a safety guarantee and punishment of those who’ve tormented him.

Further complicating things is an ongoing scandal at the top levels of Chinese government that also was triggered by a flight to a U.S. diplomatic post.

Bo Xilai, the former Communist Party secretary of Chongqing, a politburo member and rising star in the Chinese Communist Party, was removed from his seat April 10 after being accused of serious discipline violations. His wife also was alleged to have been involved in the killing of a British businessman. Bo’s undoing began when his deputy mayor, Wang Lijun, turned up at the U.S. consulate in the city of Chengdu in February.

According to reports, Wang told American officials of the Bo family’s ties to the businessman’s death, and he may have sought asylum. The Americans rejected the asylum request, but they allowed Wang to remain on the premises as he contacted officials in Beijing and was picked up the next day. Had Wang been handed over to allies of Bo, the outcome probably would have been much different.

Some observers have cast Bo’s downfall as a victory for reform-minded Chinese politicians such as Premier Wen Jiabao over more conservative elements. In a video that Chen released last week, he appealed to Wen directly to intercede.

It’s far from clear, though, whether the resolution of Chen’s plight will be wrapped into any larger struggles between political factions in Beijing.

State media had long denied that Chen, 40, was subject to rough treatment. But after slipping away last week, Chen appeared in the video describing severe beatings that he and his wife had suffered at the hands of officials and police. China’s online censors blocked that recording, as well as mentions of Chen and his story.

Chen had been sentenced to 51 months in prison in 2006 – on trumped-up charges of damaging property and assembling a crowd to block traffic – after he campaigned on behalf of women who’d undergone forced sterilizations and abortions amid a local government campaign to enforce China’s one-child population-control policy.

Upon being released from prison in September 2010, he was placed under home detention even though he hadn’t been charged with any additional crimes. After 19 months, there’d been no sign of that changing, and Chen made a run for his freedom.

Lesley Clark contributed to this article from Washington.