The most interesting team in baseball, the Marlins, begin spring training Wednesday and then the best team in basketball, the Heat, hosts the Knicks and phenom Jeremy Lin on Thursday. So before I get sidetracked by all of this week’s excitement and excellence, let me quickly mention something on the troubling side.

It involves the Dolphins.

Historians and elders will recall they used to be the big dog around here, once.

They are trying to get their bite back and be that again and they need a great quarterback to do it, but here’s the problem: The chances of realizing that quantum upgrade at that essential position are looking more and more problematic, the options all flawed. There is a very real possibility Miami will emerge from this spring’s free agency and draft with no clear assurance they’ll be better at QB.

Unduly pessimistic? No, I prefer to think of it as simply understanding that bad breaks can be assumed when it comes to this franchise. The tattoo on this club’s bicep reads, UNLUCKY. (On the other bicep is a black cat with its back arched).

The Dolphins will need something to fall just right in a major way over these next several weeks, and the litany and litter of Things Gone Wrong over the past decade suggest that’s a lot to expect. Dolfans’ blind faith in the law of averages has grown threadbare by degrees.

It says much about the fragile state of Dolphins hopefulness around here that the club’s preferred option and answer is an aging quarterback trying to come back from one, two, three, four neck surgeries – a comeback so incomplete that his arm recently was compared to the strength of a “noodle” relative to what it was.

Peyton Manning’s return to full health and Hall of Fame form is the tallest “if” in all of sports, and the greatest quandary muddying the Dolphins’ thoughts and plans.

“It’s paralyzing in a way,” an associate of owner Stephen Ross told us Monday. “You’re held hostage by the not knowing.”

Miami should know by March 8 if Manning is a free agent as he is expected to be, and the NFL free agency signing period starts March 13, but Manning won’t be fully recovered by then or even close, or be in a position to guarantee if he ever will be.

So Ross, general manager Jeff Ireland and new coach Joe Philbin must decide (and are trying to do so as we speak) whether to gamble on a full-court press to sign Manning, or whether to take a whole different sort of gamble and target pending Packers free agent Matt Flynn.

They can’t go after both. Either choice could prove great, but either could prove a nightmare. Either might be an improvement over incumbent Matt Moore, but maybe neither would be – based on Manning’s health and Flynn’s thin rèsumè.

DECISIONS, DECISIONS

What if you opt for Manning but he’s never himself again while the youthful Flynn blossoms Aaron Rodgers-like for somebody else?

What if you opt for Flynn, but he never becomes the franchise guy you expected while Manning gets healthy and is elite again somewhere else for several more years?

In Manning you’d be investing hugely in a quick fix who presently is broken.

In Flynn you’d be investing hugely in a former seventh-round draft pick based largely on two career NFL starts.

Miami supposedly leans first to the Manning option. But since Philbin came from Green Bay and knows Flynn better than anybody, does that say more about faith in Manning’s recovery or more about flaws in Flynn?

Of course, all of this assumes Miami could land one or the other, not automatic considering the competition there will be for both. (And the possibility, still, that Manning could somehow stay with the Colts or be forced to retire).

Sadly – bearing in mind we are talking about the luck-challenged Dolphins here – Manning and Flynn are Miami’s two best options and in many ways the only two, realistically.

LOSING BY WINNING

The Dolphins at 0-7 seemed headed for the overall No. 1 draft pick and Andrew Luck, but he’s Indianapolis-bound.

A major draft trade-up to land Robert Griffin III would be exciting but mega-costly and likely beyond reach. At least two other teams in need of a QB pick before Miami’s eighth or ninth overall selection, and it would be a stunner if RG3 lasted past Cleveland picking fourth.

No other college QBs are certifiably stamped 1R thanks to Southern Cal’s Matt Barkley and Oklahoma’s Landry Jones both opting to stay in school – yet another appearance by the Dolphins’ ubiquitous black cat.

The only other passer who maybe could go in the first round, Texas A&M’s Ryan Tannehill, is seen as more of a project-type and will miss this week’s NFL Scouting Combine in Indy because of a foot injury.

As for free agent options beyond Manning and Flynn, well, anybody excited about another round of Kyle Orton rumors? Hands, please? After that you’re combing the bargain bin for the likes of Jason Campbell, David Garrard or Vince Young.

If I would summarize the precariousness of the Dolphins’ franchise-quarterback dreams I’d do so with two small numbers representing one big unknown:

The numbers are four (Manning’s neck surgeries) and two (Flynn’s career starts), and for Miami that’s scary math because in this case four + two = roll dice and pray.