His statistics are flashy. His promotional video is quirky and eye-catching. His blocky, muscular physique is impressive. He can hit a baseball to the moon, and he can also catch one behind his back.

Yoenis Cespedes is a marvel to behold. The Cuban outfielder is also, in the words of the man who could soon become his manager, a risk. “There are a lot of ifs [with Cespedes],” Ozzie Guillen told a Chicago radio station on Friday. “Whoever signs him is gambling.”

After playing the penny slots for years, the Marlins — with their gleaming new ballpark — have suddenly shifted to the high-stakes tables, throwing big cash at Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle and Heath Bell, trading for Carlos Zambrano, and whisking Guillen out of the Windy City. But by going after Cespedes, they’re spinning the roulette wheel.

In the 21 years since pitcher Rene Arocha led the wave, defectors from Cuba’s baseball program have experienced mixed results in the majors, with disappointments outnumbering success stories.

For every Livan Hernandez or Alexei Ramirez, there is more than one Michael Tejera or Jorge Toca. More than 30 players have reached the majors after fleeing the communist nation since 1991. Most failed to leave a mark. Of the position players who defected, none has been an All-Star.

Now Cespedes, who is being courted by the Marlins and a handful of other teams, will soon be taking aim on the big leagues.

“In many, if not most cases, Cuban players haven’t been busts so much as they’ve been systematically over-hyped during the signing process, which led to unrealistic expectations around Major League Baseball and in the media,” said Joe Kehoskie, a baseball agent and consultant who has followed the Cuban market since the late 1990s. “The vast majority of Cuba’s truly elite players have either stayed in Cuba for their entire careers or left Cuba too late to have a meaningful MLB career.”

That trend could be starting to change, he said.

Kehoskie said while Cuban position players have “underperformed” in the United States over the past 20 years, part of it can be attributed to Cuba’s use of aluminum bats for many years and the difficulty defectors had adapting to wood bats.

But he said the majors have seen better offensive results from more recent Cuban defectors, such as Ramirez, Kendrys Morales and Yunel Escobar, because of the country’s switch to wood a little more than 10 years ago.

Ramirez, who was Guillen’s shortstop with the White Sox, is a consistent .280 hitter who has averaged 17 home runs in his four big-league seasons. Before breaking his leg in a freakish walk-off home run celebration in 2010, Morales — a first baseman for the Angels — had a breakout season in 2009. He finished fifth in MVP voting after clubbing 34 home runs, driving in 108 runs and hitting .306.

Cespedes could turn out better than any of them.

comparisons

He has been likened to Bo Jackson, a comparison Guillen rejects.

“Bo Jackson wasn’t a baseball player,” Guillen said of the former two-sport standout during Friday’s radio interview. “This kid is a baseball player. They compare him with [Raul] Mondesi. I think Mondesi was better than him. That’s my own opinion. Mondesi has a better arm, faster, but this kid is pretty good.”